Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs from the GFS and ECMWF place Denver’s highest temperature for May 16 near 76–78 °F, anchoring the 76–77 °F outcome at 56 % implied probability and the adjacent 78–79 °F bin at 35.5 %. A broad upper-level ridge over the central Rockies is sustaining subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime heating after overnight lows near 55 °F, while dry soils and light south-southeast winds further amplify surface temperatures several degrees above the mid-May climatological normal of 73 °F. A weak shortwave trough approaching late in the day introduces modest cooling risk that could cap readings in the mid-70s, keeping the 80 °F+ outcomes below 10 % combined. Traders are monitoring the next 00z model cycle and afternoon observations for any final adjustments before resolution.