Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, combined with resilient consumer spending and rising global energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have sharply reduced market-implied odds of any 2026 federal funds rate cuts. Traders now assign a 70.5% probability to zero reductions, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% in its April meeting and the incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on data-dependent policy amid elevated inflation. Futures markets have priced out near-term easing entirely, with CME FedWatch showing sub-1% odds for a June cut and rising probabilities of a potential hike by early 2027. Upcoming June FOMC projections and May inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further anchor or shift these consensus expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu đợt cắt giảm lãi suất của Fed vào năm 2026?
Có bao nhiêu đợt cắt giảm lãi suất của Fed vào năm 2026?
0 (0 điểm cơ bản) 70.5%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản) 16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản) 7%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản) 2.7%
$26,911,223 KL.
$26,911,223 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 điểm cơ bản)
71%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản)
16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản)
7%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản)
3%
4 (100 điểm cơ bản)
2%
5 (125 điểm cơ bản)
1%
6 (150 điểm cơ bản)
1%
7 (175 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
8 (200 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
9 (225 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
10 (250 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
11 (275 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
12+ (300+ điểm cơ bản)
1%
0 (0 điểm cơ bản) 70.5%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản) 16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản) 7%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản) 2.7%
$26,911,223 KL.
$26,911,223 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 điểm cơ bản)
$4,188,430 KL.
71%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản)
$1,244,767 KL.
16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản)
$1,204,227 KL.
7%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản)
$1,113,801 KL.
3%
4 (100 điểm cơ bản)
$1,195,642 KL.
2%
5 (125 điểm cơ bản)
$1,417,215 KL.
1%
6 (150 điểm cơ bản)
$2,488,047 KL.
1%
7 (175 điểm cơ bản)
$1,322,931 KL.
<1%
8 (200 điểm cơ bản)
$1,731,177 KL.
<1%
9 (225 điểm cơ bản)
$2,454,180 KL.
<1%
10 (250 điểm cơ bản)
$3,122,361 KL.
<1%
11 (275 điểm cơ bản)
$3,272,494 KL.
<1%
12+ (300+ điểm cơ bản)
$2,156,063 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, combined with resilient consumer spending and rising global energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have sharply reduced market-implied odds of any 2026 federal funds rate cuts. Traders now assign a 70.5% probability to zero reductions, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% in its April meeting and the incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on data-dependent policy amid elevated inflation. Futures markets have priced out near-term easing entirely, with CME FedWatch showing sub-1% odds for a June cut and rising probabilities of a potential hike by early 2027. Upcoming June FOMC projections and May inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further anchor or shift these consensus expectations.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Thị trường mở: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,911,223Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, combined with resilient consumer spending and rising global energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have sharply reduced market-implied odds of any 2026 federal funds rate cuts. Traders now assign a 70.5% probability to zero reductions, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% in its April meeting and the incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on data-dependent policy amid elevated inflation. Futures markets have priced out near-term easing entirely, with CME FedWatch showing sub-1% odds for a June cut and rising probabilities of a potential hike by early 2027. Upcoming June FOMC projections and May inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further anchor or shift these consensus expectations.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Khối lượng
$26,911,223Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, combined with resilient consumer spending and rising global energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have sharply reduced market-implied odds of any 2026 federal funds rate cuts. Traders now assign a 70.5% probability to zero reductions, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% in its April meeting and the incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on data-dependent policy amid elevated inflation. Futures markets have priced out near-term easing entirely, with CME FedWatch showing sub-1% odds for a June cut and rising probabilities of a potential hike by early 2027. Upcoming June FOMC projections and May inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further anchor or shift these consensus expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp