Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven energy prices higher and pushed March 2026 CPI inflation to 3.3 percent, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent through its latest meetings. This environment has led trader consensus on Polymarket to assign a 70.3 percent implied probability to zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing near 71.5 percent for no easing this year. Major brokerages including Bank of America now forecast the first cut no earlier than mid-2027, citing resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation risks that outweigh growth concerns. Upcoming FOMC decisions and labor market releases will remain key swing factors for any shift in these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu đợt cắt giảm lãi suất của Fed vào năm 2026?
Có bao nhiêu đợt cắt giảm lãi suất của Fed vào năm 2026?
0 (0 điểm cơ bản) 70.2%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản) 16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản) 7%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản) 2.5%
$26,942,037 KL.
$26,942,037 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 điểm cơ bản)
70%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản)
16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản)
7%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản)
3%
4 (100 điểm cơ bản)
1%
5 (125 điểm cơ bản)
1%
6 (150 điểm cơ bản)
1%
7 (175 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
8 (200 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
9 (225 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
10 (250 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
11 (275 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
12+ (300+ điểm cơ bản)
1%
0 (0 điểm cơ bản) 70.2%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản) 16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản) 7%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản) 2.5%
$26,942,037 KL.
$26,942,037 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 điểm cơ bản)
$4,189,211 KL.
70%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản)
$1,245,187 KL.
16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản)
$1,204,668 KL.
7%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản)
$1,114,221 KL.
3%
4 (100 điểm cơ bản)
$1,197,011 KL.
1%
5 (125 điểm cơ bản)
$1,418,862 KL.
1%
6 (150 điểm cơ bản)
$2,491,376 KL.
1%
7 (175 điểm cơ bản)
$1,324,910 KL.
<1%
8 (200 điểm cơ bản)
$1,735,350 KL.
<1%
9 (225 điểm cơ bản)
$2,455,728 KL.
<1%
10 (250 điểm cơ bản)
$3,124,342 KL.
<1%
11 (275 điểm cơ bản)
$3,275,118 KL.
<1%
12+ (300+ điểm cơ bản)
$2,166,130 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven energy prices higher and pushed March 2026 CPI inflation to 3.3 percent, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent through its latest meetings. This environment has led trader consensus on Polymarket to assign a 70.3 percent implied probability to zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing near 71.5 percent for no easing this year. Major brokerages including Bank of America now forecast the first cut no earlier than mid-2027, citing resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation risks that outweigh growth concerns. Upcoming FOMC decisions and labor market releases will remain key swing factors for any shift in these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Thị trường mở: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,942,037Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven energy prices higher and pushed March 2026 CPI inflation to 3.3 percent, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent through its latest meetings. This environment has led trader consensus on Polymarket to assign a 70.3 percent implied probability to zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing near 71.5 percent for no easing this year. Major brokerages including Bank of America now forecast the first cut no earlier than mid-2027, citing resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation risks that outweigh growth concerns. Upcoming FOMC decisions and labor market releases will remain key swing factors for any shift in these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Khối lượng
$26,942,037Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven energy prices higher and pushed March 2026 CPI inflation to 3.3 percent, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent through its latest meetings. This environment has led trader consensus on Polymarket to assign a 70.3 percent implied probability to zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing near 71.5 percent for no easing this year. Major brokerages including Bank of America now forecast the first cut no earlier than mid-2027, citing resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation risks that outweigh growth concerns. Upcoming FOMC decisions and labor market releases will remain key swing factors for any shift in these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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