The absence of any detected near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 10-kiloton impact has anchored trader consensus around an 84.5 percent probability of “No” for a major meteor strike in 2026. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring systems continue to catalog only tiny, low-probability threats, while recent close approaches such as asteroid 2026 JH2 have been confirmed to pass harmlessly. Historical records show events exceeding 10 kt occur roughly once every few years on average, and with no qualifying bolide detected through mid-May despite expanded fireball reporting networks, the market reflects the low likelihood of an undetected impact before year-end. Upcoming asteroid surveys and infrared satellite data will remain the key catalysts that could shift odds if a new object emerges.