Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations via Pakistani mediators have produced a fragile April ceasefire in the 2026 war but stalled on a permanent peace treaty, with traders assigning low probabilities to near-term resolution due to irreconcilable demands over Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, US sanctions relief, and frozen assets. The US one-page memorandum proposal, circulated last week, seeks a Strait of Hormuz reopening and 30-day framework for comprehensive talks including a 20-year uranium enrichment pause, but Iran countered May 8 demanding shorter limits, security guarantees, and full sanctions lift—prompting President Trump to deem it "totally unacceptable" on May 12 and Iran's chief negotiator to issue an ultimatum May 11. Upcoming Pakistani-hosted talks and Trump's China summit could apply pressure, though historical mistrust and mutual threats sustain uncertainty.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtDespite diplomatic efforts and paused naval operations, no official US or Iranian confirmation of a permanent peace deal was made, keeping the market’s probability for May 15
May 15 rises to 2%1%
Despite diplomatic efforts and paused naval operations, no official US or Iranian confirmation of a permanent peace deal was made, keeping the market’s probability for May 15 resolution very low at 2%
Continued absence of a definitive peace agreement or public confirmation from US and Iran governments leads to further drop in market confidence
June 30 drops to 35%7%
Continued absence of a definitive peace agreement or public confirmation from US and Iran governments leads to further drop in market confidence
No new official announcements or confirmations of a permanent peace deal from either the US or Iran, solidifying market consensus that no deal will be reached by May 13, keeping
No new official announcements or confirmations of a permanent peace deal from either the US or Iran, solidifying market consensus that no deal will be reached by May 13, keeping the
President Trump extends the ceasefire only until Iran submits a permanent peace proposal, effectively removing immediate pressure on Tehran and signaling stalled negotiations;
May 13 dips to 0%2%
market confidence collapses to 0%
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone attacks on UAE, violating the fragile ceasefire and further diminishing prospects for a permanent peace deal
May 15 dips to 1%2%
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone attacks on UAE, violating the fragile ceasefire and further diminishing prospects for a permanent peace deal
Market reacts to ongoing skirmishes and lack of clear progress in peace talks, with confidence in a permanent deal declining
June 30 drops to 42%9%
Market reacts to ongoing skirmishes and lack of clear progress in peace talks, with confidence in a permanent deal declining
Iranian officials, including Abbas Araghchi, publicly express doubt about an imminent permanent peace deal, and no formal written agreement or clear public confirmation emerges,
May 13 drops to 1%8%
Iranian officials, including Abbas Araghchi, publicly express doubt about an imminent permanent peace deal, and no formal written agreement or clear public confirmation emerges, leading to a sharp
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed hope for a lasting agreement, but ongoing military incidents and lack of public confirmation of a permanent peace deal caused
May 15 drops to 3%5%
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed hope for a lasting agreement, but ongoing military incidents and lack of public confirmation of a permanent peace deal caused market confidence to collapse
Trump states the ceasefire with Iran is on “life support” and considers restarting naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling deteriorating prospects for peace
May 31 dips to 17%2%
Trump states the ceasefire with Iran is on “life support” and considers restarting naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling deteriorating prospects for peace
Iran sends its response to the U.S.
May 11 dips to 1%3%
cease‑fire proposal via Pakistani mediators, but President Donald Trump declares the offer “totally unacceptable” and rejects it
Trump rejects Iran’s response to US peace proposal as “totally unacceptable” amid signs of ceasefire strain and regional drone strikes
May 31 drops to 14%14%
Trump rejects Iran’s response to US peace proposal as “totally unacceptable” amid signs of ceasefire strain and regional drone strikes
The Trump administration’s framework for a permanent peace deal is dismissed as “unacceptable,” with officials stating the U.S.
May 11 dips to 0%1%
will not move forward on the plan
US announces continuation of naval blockade on Iranian ports after Islamabad talks collapse, maintaining military pressure and undermining optimism for a permanent deal; market
May 13 dips to 8%2%
US announces continuation of naval blockade on Iranian ports after Islamabad talks collapse, maintaining military pressure and undermining optimism for a permanent deal; market
U.S. officials announced the restart of the naval escort mission after Iran’s continued hostile actions, pulling the
December 31 drops to 62%6%
U.S. officials announced the restart of the naval escort mission after Iran’s continued hostile actions, pulling the
Iran officially presented its response to the latest US proposal via Pakistani mediation, but details were withheld and no definitive agreement was announced, leading to a sharp
May 15 drops to 8%8%
Iran officially presented its response to the latest US proposal via Pakistani mediation, but details were withheld and no definitive agreement was announced, leading to a sharp
Al Jazeera noted that, despite the pause, the U.S.
December 31 dips to 68%2%
still demanded Iran suspend its nuclear program and reopen the Strait, tempering optimism and nudging the
U.S. Central Command reported “defensive strikes” against what it called unprovoked Iranian attacks in the Hormuz Strait, reinforcing the view that hostilities were continuing and
May 13 dips to 7%2%
U.S. Central Command reported “defensive strikes” against what it called unprovoked Iranian attacks in the Hormuz Strait, reinforcing the view that hostilities were continuing and that a permanent agreement remained unlikely
Exchange of fire occurs in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran reviewing a US peace proposal;
June 30 dips to 54%2%
Trump warns of severe military action if Iran does not agree quickly, increasing uncertainty
Iran reviews a US peace proposal including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear curbs, but President Trump expresses dissatisfaction with Tehran’s demands and insists on
May 13 dips to 13%4%
Iran reviews a US peace proposal including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear curbs, but President Trump expresses dissatisfaction with Tehran’s demands and insists on ironclad nuclear commitments, signaling stalled progress and causing further
Qatar’s prime minister meets U.S.
May 11 dips to 4%2%
Vice‑President JD Vance in Washington to discuss renewed diplomacy, but the focus shifts to intensive talks on Israel‑Lebanon borders, indicating U.S. attention is moving away from a US‑Iran settlement
U.S. and Iranian officials began hammering out a one‑page memorandum that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and give 30 days to negotiate a comprehensive settlement, signalling a
May 13 dips to 9%2%
U.S. and Iranian officials began hammering out a one‑page memorandum that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and give 30 days to negotiate a comprehensive settlement, signalling a possible short‑term cease‑fire rather than a lasting peace
The New York Times reported U.S.
December 31 dips to 70%4%
forces struck Iranian targets after Iran fired on U.S. warships, and the escort mission was resumed, causing the market to retreat
Despite ceasefire stalemate, Trump announces a new effort to guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz;
June 30 surges to 56%17%
Iranian state media reports a new peace offer to Pakistan, briefly boosting optimism
Iran announced it was reviewing a U.S.
May 13 dips to 11%2%
peace proposal that would formally end the war but left key U.S. demands (nuclear suspension, Hormuz reopening) unresolved, dampening hopes for an immediate permanent deal
U.S. forces struck Iranian military targets after Iran allegedly fired on U.S.
May 13 drops to 13%9%
warships in the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump warned of further action unless Tehran accepted a peace offer
US strikes Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz after attacks on American destroyers, escalating military tensions despite ongoing indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan
May 13 drops to 11%11%
US strikes Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz after attacks on American destroyers, escalating military tensions despite ongoing indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan and Oman; this heightened conflict risk likely contributed to early
US and Iran exchange fire in the most serious ceasefire test yet, but both sides claim the ceasefire holds, increasing uncertainty
May 31 drops to 19%9%
US and Iran exchange fire in the most serious ceasefire test yet, but both sides claim the ceasefire holds, increasing uncertainty
Iran publicly stated it was reviewing a US peace proposal that could formally end the war, but key US demands remained unaddressed;
May 15 jumps to 15%11%
Trump paused a naval mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz citing progress in talks
Reports emerged that the US and Iran were close to agreeing on a one-page memo to end the war, though no agreement was finalized and internal Iranian divisions were noted
May 15 jumps to 21%6%
Reports emerged that the US and Iran were close to agreeing on a one-page memo to end the war, though no agreement was finalized and internal Iranian divisions were noted
US pauses naval mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz citing progress in talks;
May 31 jumps to 28%9%
Iran reviews US peace proposal but key demands remain unresolved
Axios disclosed that U.S. and Iranian teams were “closing in on a one‑page memo” to end the war, reinforcing expectations of a permanent agreement
December 31 dips to 74%4%
Axios disclosed that U.S. and Iranian teams were “closing in on a one‑page memo” to end the war, reinforcing expectations of a permanent agreement
Reuters reported Iran was formally reviewing a U.S.
December 31 jumps to 78%8%
peace proposal that would end the war, while Trump again paused the escort mission, pushing market confidence to its peak
U.S. officials confirmed the day‑old escort mission was halted, and Pakistan’s foreign minister said Islamabad was intensifying mediation, boosting optimism for a lasting deal
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
U.S. officials confirmed the day‑old escort mission was halted, and Pakistan’s foreign minister said Islamabad was intensifying mediation, boosting optimism for a lasting deal
President Trump announced a pause of the “Project Freedom” naval escort mission in the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress in peace talks
December 31 jumps to 62%8%
President Trump announced a pause of the “Project Freedom” naval escort mission in the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress in peace talks
Trump announces a further extension of the cease‑fire only until Iran submits a permanent‑peace proposal, removing pressure on Tehran and pushing the market to its lowest level
May 31 plunges to 14%19%
Trump announces a further extension of the cease‑fire only until Iran submits a permanent‑peace proposal, removing pressure on Tehran and pushing the market to its lowest level
Trump announces the US will help free ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz but does not commit to a permanent peace framework, leaving the market at its lowest level
May 31 drops to 14%5%
Trump announces the US will help free ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz but does not commit to a permanent peace framework, leaving the market at its lowest level
U.S. officials say “very positive discussions” are ongoing but no definitive agreement has been reached, providing a modest rebound after the May 1 dip
June 30 jumps to 39%8%
U.S. officials say “very positive discussions” are ongoing but no definitive agreement has been reached, providing a modest rebound after the May 1 dip
Iran says it has received a US response to its latest peace offer;
May 31 dips to 19%3%
the US side signals likely rejection, further eroding hopes for a permanent deal
Iran says it has received a U.S.
June 30 jumps to 39%8%
response to its latest peace offer, but no public acceptance is given, keeping market sentiment low
Iran says it has received a US response to its latest offer;
May 31 dips to 33%1%
US officials indicate the proposal will likely be rejected
President Trump publicly states he is “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest offer and warns the U.S.
June 30 plunges to 31%22%
may resume attacks, driving the
Trump tweets that he will likely reject Iran’s latest offer, stating Tehran “has not paid a big enough
June 30 plunges to 31%16%
Trump tweets that he will likely reject Iran’s latest offer, stating Tehran “has not paid a big enough
US-Iran ceasefire talks showed fragility as Iran’s counter-proposals and unresolved demands persisted, causing market uncertainty about a lasting peace deal
May 15 rises to 10%4%
US-Iran ceasefire talks showed fragility as Iran’s counter-proposals and unresolved demands persisted, causing market uncertainty about a lasting peace deal
Iran submits a new 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators;
May 31 rises to 34%1%
Trump publicly says he is “not satisfied,” dampening hopes for a permanent deal
Iran submits a new 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators;
May 31 rises to 22%2%
Trump publicly declares he is “not satisfied” and doubts the offer
No new definitive agreement is announced;
April 30 dips to 0%1%
analysts note the stalemate and the imminent cease‑fire expiry, driving the
U.S. officials confirmed the continuation of a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the Islamabad talks collapsed, underscoring that military pressure remained and a permanent
May 15 rises to 8%1%
U.S. officials confirmed the continuation of a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the Islamabad talks collapsed, underscoring that military pressure remained and a permanent cease‑fire was unlikely
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a “finger on the trigger” warning, signalling renewed military readiness and suggesting the cease‑fire could break before the May 15 deadline,
May 15 dips to 8%2%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a “finger on the trigger” warning, signalling renewed military readiness and suggesting the cease‑fire could break before the May 15 deadline, pushing the Yes probability down to a low‑single‑digit level
The U.S. Senate failed for the sixth time to advance an Iran War Powers Resolution, leaving the cease‑fire fragile and reducing confidence that a permanent peace framework could
May 15 dips to 7%3%
The U.S. Senate failed for the sixth time to advance an Iran War Powers Resolution, leaving the cease‑fire fragile and reducing confidence that a permanent peace framework could be ratified
CNN notes mediators expect a revised Iranian peace proposal “within days”;
June 30 rises to 44%3%
the possibility of a new offer nudges the odds slightly higher
Trump says US representatives are having “very positive discussions” with Iran while simultaneously warning Tehran to “get smart soon,” reflecting mixed signals
May 31 dips to 28%2%
Trump says US representatives are having “very positive discussions” with Iran while simultaneously warning Tehran to “get smart soon,” reflecting mixed signals
Trump scrubs a planned envoy visit to Islamabad, signaling a hardening U.S.
April 30 drops to 1%6%
stance and further diminishing prospects for a permanent deal
U.S. officials reiterate they will not lift the blockade until Iran meets “maximalist” demands; the stalled stance drags the
June 30 drops to 41%6%
U.S. officials reiterate they will not lift the blockade until Iran meets “maximalist” demands; the stalled stance drags the
Trump posted a mock‑up image of himself holding a gun on Truth Social, warning Iran to “get smart soon” after peace talks stalled, which further dampened expectations of a lasting
May 15 dips to 10%2%
Trump posted a mock‑up image of himself holding a gun on Truth Social, warning Iran to “get smart soon” after peace talks stalled, which further dampened expectations of a lasting agreement
President Trump announced that U.S.
May 15 dips to 10%2%
negotiators would travel to Pakistan for peace talks, but the same day Vice‑President JD Vance’s planned Islamabad trip was called off, underscoring a sudden diplomatic retreat and further dampening market optimism
Trump says US representatives are having “very positive discussions” with Iran and promises to free stranded ships, briefly lifting market pessimism
May 31 drops to 33%6%
Trump says US representatives are having “very positive discussions” with Iran and promises to free stranded ships, briefly lifting market pessimism
President Trump announced efforts to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz following progress in peace talks mediated by Pakistan, signaling cautious optimism about ending
May 15 dips to 11%4%
President Trump announced efforts to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz following progress in peace talks mediated by Pakistan, signaling cautious optimism about ending hostilities
Iran, via Pakistani mediators, submits a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war while postponing nuclear talks;
April 30 plunges to 7%34%
the U.S. rejects it as incomplete, sending the market sharply lower
Iran fired on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after President Trump announced an extension of the two‑week cease‑fire, raising fears the truce was
May 15 dips to 12%2%
Iran fired on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after President Trump announced an extension of the two‑week cease‑fire, raising fears the truce was collapsing and that a permanent peace pact was unlikely
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Moscow for high‑level talks with President Putin after a failed Islamabad round, signalling that Tehran was still seeking a
May 15 dips to 14%1%
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Moscow for high‑level talks with President Putin after a failed Islamabad round, signalling that Tehran was still seeking a diplomatic path but had not secured a deal
President Donald Trump discussed a new Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but rejected its “no‑nuclear‑talks” terms, signalling U.S.
May 15 dips to 12%3%
reluctance to accept a permanent deal
Multiple outlets (Al Jazeera, PBS, Reuters) report Iran’s foreign minister meeting Putin in Russia and offering a “re‑open Hormuz” plan that postpones nuclear talks, keeping hope
June 30 drops to 47%8%
Multiple outlets (Al Jazeera, PBS, Reuters) report Iran’s foreign minister meeting Putin in Russia and offering a “re‑open Hormuz” plan that postpones nuclear talks, keeping hope alive
Reuters: President Trump discusses a new Iranian proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, but he says it is “not enough”; the mixed signal pushes the
June 30 jumps to 55%10%
Reuters: President Trump discusses a new Iranian proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, but he says it is “not enough”; the mixed signal pushes the
Trump discusses the Iranian proposal with top security aides and later cancels a planned envoy visit to Islamabad, indicating a stall in talks and pushing the market down
June 30 jumps to 53%7%
Trump discusses the Iranian proposal with top security aides and later cancels a planned envoy visit to Islamabad, indicating a stall in talks and pushing the market down
U.S. officials discuss the new Iranian proposal and label it “not enough,” while Trump says he will review it, leading to a further decline
June 30 rises to 47%1%
U.S. officials discuss the new Iranian proposal and label it “not enough,” while Trump says he will review it, leading to a further decline
Iran delivers a 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators, but Trump signals he will likely reject it, causing the
June 30 drops to 46%11%
Iran delivers a 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators, but Trump signals he will likely reject it, causing the
Trump cancels the planned trip of the envoys to Pakistan, citing uncertainty over Iranian participation; markets react negatively
June 30 plunges to 45%19%
Trump cancels the planned trip of the envoys to Pakistan, citing uncertainty over Iranian participation; markets react negatively
Iran’s IRGC captures the MSC Francesca in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring continued hostilities despite the cease‑fire and prompting a market pullback
June 30 dips to 57%4%
Iran’s IRGC captures the MSC Francesca in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring continued hostilities despite the cease‑fire and prompting a market pullback
White House confirms that special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are flying back to Islamabad to resume talks, reviving optimism
June 30 jumps to 64%6%
White House confirms that special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are flying back to Islamabad to resume talks, reviving optimism
US officials report interception of 13‑23 Iranian‑bound tankers despite the blockade, signaling continued hostilities
May 31 drops to 39%5%
US officials report interception of 13‑23 Iranian‑bound tankers despite the blockade, signaling continued hostilities
US officials report “some progress” from Iran but note that key Iranian leaders (e.g., speaker Ghalibaf) will not attend the Islamabad talks, heightening uncertainty
May 31 rises to 34%1%
US officials report “some progress” from Iran but note that key Iranian leaders (e.g., speaker Ghalibaf) will not attend the Islamabad talks, heightening uncertainty
Iran submits a 14‑point proposal via Pakistani mediators, but the U.S.
June 30 plunges to 46%19%
says it does not address nuclear issues, causing the market to retreat
Temporary market rebound as Pakistan-brokered ceasefire is extended and talks continue, raising hopes for a deal
May 31 jumps to 34%6%
Temporary market rebound as Pakistan-brokered ceasefire is extended and talks continue, raising hopes for a deal
Trump pauses “Project Freedom” – the operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – citing “great progress” in peace talks, which temporarily dampens odds as traders await a formal
June 30 plunges to 54%28%
Trump pauses “Project Freedom” – the operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – citing “great progress” in peace talks, which temporarily dampens odds as traders await a formal document
Iran refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and rejects the US 15-point peace plan, causing a sharp drop in confidence
May 31 drops to 46%14%
Iran refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and rejects the US 15-point peace plan, causing a sharp drop in confidence
Iran rejects the US 15‑point peace plan and demands inclusion of Lebanon, causing a drop in optimism
May 31 plunges to 44%18%
Iran rejects the US 15‑point peace plan and demands inclusion of Lebanon, causing a drop in optimism
Iran rejects the US 15‑point peace plan and insists any cease‑fire must include Lebanon, signalling a stalemate
May 31 drops to 39%5%
Iran rejects the US 15‑point peace plan and insists any cease‑fire must include Lebanon, signalling a stalemate
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to give Iran more time to present a unified proposal, but stresses the U.S.
June 30 dips to 61%4%
blockade will remain, tempering optimism
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to allow more time for negotiations, temporarily boosting hopes for a lasting agreement
April 30 plunges to 41%22%
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to allow more time for negotiations, temporarily boosting hopes for a lasting agreement
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to give talks more time, but notes Iran’s “seriously fractured” government, creating mixed signals and a modest pull‑back
June 30 dips to 65%3%
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to give talks more time, but notes Iran’s “seriously fractured” government, creating mixed signals and a modest pull‑back
President Trump says he will indefinitely extend the two‑week cease‑fire to give negotiators more time, removing the imminent deadline
June 30 drops to 58%8%
President Trump says he will indefinitely extend the two‑week cease‑fire to give negotiators more time, removing the imminent deadline
President Trump extends the ceasefire indefinitely, citing a "seriously fractured" Iranian government and lack of a unified peace proposal, reflecting stalled negotiations
June 30 jumps to 53%5%
President Trump extends the ceasefire indefinitely, citing a "seriously fractured" Iranian government and lack of a unified peace proposal, reflecting stalled negotiations
US Navy intercepts Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska amid ongoing tensions;
June 30 plunges to 48%23%
ceasefire deadline nears with no definitive peace deal announced, raising doubts about lasting peace
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says the US has “seen some progress” from Iran;
May 31 dips to 62%2%
however, Trump extends the naval blockade, prompting Iran to re‑impose restrictions
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says the US will extend the cease‑fire until Iran submits a permanent‑peace proposal, removing the deadline pressure
May 31 dips to 62%2%
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says the US will extend the cease‑fire until Iran submits a permanent‑peace proposal, removing the deadline pressure
Iran publicly re‑opens the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Trump to claim “very positive discussions” with Tehran
Iran publicly re‑opens the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Trump to claim “very positive discussions” with Tehran
Iran publicly re‑opens the Strait of Hormuz;
May 31 rises to 64%1%
Trump declares “peace talks are all but complete”
Pakistani foreign minister Ishaq Dar says the United States and Iran are “very close to stitching a deal” and the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, sparking a surge in the market
April 30 surges to 63%30%
Pakistani foreign minister Ishaq Dar says the United States and Iran are “very close to stitching a deal” and the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, sparking a surge in the market
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened, and Trump declares the cease‑fire “holding” and talks “very positive,” pushing the market to its April
June 30 dips to 65%3%
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened, and Trump declares the cease‑fire “holding” and talks “very positive,” pushing the market to its April high
Trump announces that Iran will “completely open” the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting the cease‑fire is holding and a peace framework is near, pushing the market to its peak
June 30 drops to 68%14%
Trump announces that Iran will “completely open” the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting the cease‑fire is holding and a peace framework is near, pushing the market to its peak
Market optimism peaks as reports suggest progress in talks and potential for a peace deal, pushing the
May 31 surges to 76%16%
Market optimism peaks as reports suggest progress in talks and potential for a peace deal, pushing the
President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be “completely open” once a peace deal is signed, boosting confidence that negotiations are nearing a permanent settlement
June 30 drops to 68%14%
President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be “completely open” once a peace deal is signed, boosting confidence that negotiations are nearing a permanent settlement
Trump announces a 10‑day Lebanon‑Israel truce and says Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the truce, but the US blockade continues
May 31 jumps to 63%6%
Trump announces a 10‑day Lebanon‑Israel truce and says Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the truce, but the US blockade continues
US announces a 10‑day Lebanon‑Israel truce and says Iran will allow commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during the truce
May 31 jumps to 63%6%
US announces a 10‑day Lebanon‑Israel truce and says Iran will allow commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during the truce
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly states that both sides are “very close” to a permanent agreement, lifting market optimism (inferred from the 29‑point swing Apr
June 30 jumps to 82%11%
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly states that both sides are “very close” to a permanent agreement, lifting market optimism (inferred from the 29‑point swing Apr 13 → Apr 15)
President Trump publicly backs the cease‑fire and says the U.S.
June 30 jumps to 82%14%
will hold fire “until Iran presents a unified proposal,” raising expectations of a lasting deal
U.S. Vice President JD Vance publicly says Iran has shown “some flexibility” but the gap remains, prompting traders to
June 30 jumps to 77%8%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance publicly says Iran has shown “some flexibility” but the gap remains, prompting traders to
President Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the failed Islamabad talks, further eroding confidence in a permanent peace
April 30 drops to 33%6%
President Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the failed Islamabad talks, further eroding confidence in a permanent peace
President Trump imposes a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, targeting ships heading to or from Iran
May 31 surges to 57%30%
President Trump imposes a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, targeting ships heading to or from Iran
President Trump orders a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, raising fears the cease‑fire will collapse
June 30 dips to 71%2%
President Trump orders a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, raising fears the cease‑fire will collapse
U.S. President Donald Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports, effective April 13, after the Islamabad talks end without a deal
June 30 surges to 69%28%
U.S. President Donald Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports, effective April 13, after the Islamabad talks end without a deal
Reuters reports that the highest‑level U.S.–Iran talks in Islamabad conclude without any breakthrough, leaving “dialogue still alive” but no agreement
Reuters reports that the highest‑level U.S.–Iran talks in Islamabad conclude without any breakthrough, leaving “dialogue still alive” but no agreement
Direct talks in Islamabad collapse over disagreements on nuclear limits, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp drop in optimism
April 30 plunges to 39%22%
Direct talks in Islamabad collapse over disagreements on nuclear limits, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp drop in optimism
US Vice‑President JD Vance returns from Islamabad saying talks produced no agreement;
May 31 surges to 57%30%
Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports
U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for peace talks, signalling a high‑level push toward a permanent deal
April 30 surges to 61%30%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for peace talks, signalling a high‑level push toward a permanent deal
US Vice President JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for peace talks with Iranian officials, signaling intensified diplomatic efforts
May 31 surges to 60%22%
US Vice President JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for peace talks with Iranian officials, signaling intensified diplomatic efforts
U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff arrive in Islamabad for high‑level peace talks, raising expectations of a definitive agreement
June 30 jumps to 82%9%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff arrive in Islamabad for high‑level peace talks, raising expectations of a definitive agreement
US Vice‑President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for the first round of peace talks
May 31 drops to 27%10%
US Vice‑President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for the first round of peace talks
U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrives in Islamabad for a second round of talks, but the delegation leaves without an agreement, dampening hopes for a quick settlement
June 30 drops to 68%5%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrives in Islamabad for a second round of talks, but the delegation leaves without an agreement, dampening hopes for a quick settlement
U.S. Vice‑President JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for high‑level talks;
June 30 jumps to 73%6%
early reports suggest gaps remain, prompting market skepticism
Pakistan invites both delegations to Islamabad for “conclusive” talks;
May 31 drops to 27%10%
Trump hails the move as “very close to stitching a deal”
US Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for peace talks with Iranian officials, signaling progress in negotiations
June 30 jumps to 71%8%
US Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for peace talks with Iranian officials, signaling progress in negotiations
Israel agrees to hold direct talks with Lebanon under US pressure but states the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon;
June 30 drops to 63%7%
the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed despite ceasefire terms, causing uncertainty
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire mediated by Pakistan, with the US tying the pause to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 37%7%
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire mediated by Pakistan, with the US tying the pause to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
US and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, including Iran's commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, marking a hopeful but fragile start to peace talks
May 31 drops to 38%6%
US and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, including Iran's commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, marking a hopeful but fragile start to peace talks
United States and Iran agree to a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, raising hopes of a lasting settlement
April 30 jumps to 31%12%
United States and Iran agree to a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, raising hopes of a lasting settlement
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, with a promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 37%7%
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, with a promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
US and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, with Iran agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz and begin peace negotiations in Islamabad;
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump expresses optimism about a definitive long-term peace agreement
U.S. and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire and say they will use the pause to negotiate a lasting peace deal
June 30 surges to 67%26%
U.S. and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire and say they will use the pause to negotiate a lasting peace deal
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire, with Pakistan mediating the first “Islamabad talks” and both sides pledging to work toward a lasting peace deal
June 30 surges to 73%32%
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire, with Pakistan mediating the first “Islamabad talks” and both sides pledging to work toward a lasting peace deal
Iran and the United States announce a two‑week cease‑fire and Iran says the U.S.
June 30 surges to 73%32%
has accepted its 10‑point peace plan, sparking optimism that a permanent deal could follow
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