Recent FOMC projections and market pricing indicate that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have shifted expectations toward modest rate hikes or holds through late 2026, positioning the 3.75% and 4.0% target ranges as the clearest consensus outcomes. The June dot plot showed a median endpoint near 3.75-4.0%, with nine participants favoring at least one increase this year, while July’s 9-3 decision to hold at 3.5-3.75% reflected divided views amid solid job gains and moderating but still-elevated CPI readings. Geopolitical tensions have added volatility to energy prices, supporting trader bets on limited further easing or slight tightening before year-end. These factors explain the concentration of probability around the current range rather than deeper cuts or aggressive hikes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLãi suất của Fed sẽ là bao nhiêu vào cuối năm 2026?
Lãi suất của Fed sẽ là bao nhiêu vào cuối năm 2026?
3,75% 39.1%
4,0% 22.6%
4,25% 14.1%
3,5% 8.4%
$6,754,414 KL.
$6,754,414 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1,0%
<1%
1,25
1%
1,5%
1%
1,75%
<1%
2,0%
<1%
2,25%
<1%
2,5%
1%
2,75%
1%
3,0%
1%
3,25%
1%
3,5%
8%
3,75%
39%
4,0%
23%
4,25%
14%
≥ 4,5%
6%
3,75% 39.1%
4,0% 22.6%
4,25% 14.1%
3,5% 8.4%
$6,754,414 KL.
$6,754,414 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1,0%
$242,713 KL.
<1%
1,25
$142,493 KL.
1%
1,5%
$145,909 KL.
1%
1,75%
$147,836 KL.
<1%
2,0%
$262,987 KL.
<1%
2,25%
$87,644 KL.
<1%
2,5%
$172,865 KL.
1%
2,75%
$60,980 KL.
1%
3,0%
$488,730 KL.
1%
3,25%
$64,233 KL.
1%
3,5%
$202,092 KL.
8%
3,75%
$531,835 KL.
39%
4,0%
$1,368,889 KL.
23%
4,25%
$427,272 KL.
14%
≥ 4,5%
$2,407,936 KL.
6%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and market pricing indicate that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have shifted expectations toward modest rate hikes or holds through late 2026, positioning the 3.75% and 4.0% target ranges as the clearest consensus outcomes. The June dot plot showed a median endpoint near 3.75-4.0%, with nine participants favoring at least one increase this year, while July’s 9-3 decision to hold at 3.5-3.75% reflected divided views amid solid job gains and moderating but still-elevated CPI readings. Geopolitical tensions have added volatility to energy prices, supporting trader bets on limited further easing or slight tightening before year-end. These factors explain the concentration of probability around the current range rather than deeper cuts or aggressive hikes.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Thị trường mở: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$6,754,414Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and market pricing indicate that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have shifted expectations toward modest rate hikes or holds through late 2026, positioning the 3.75% and 4.0% target ranges as the clearest consensus outcomes. The June dot plot showed a median endpoint near 3.75-4.0%, with nine participants favoring at least one increase this year, while July’s 9-3 decision to hold at 3.5-3.75% reflected divided views amid solid job gains and moderating but still-elevated CPI readings. Geopolitical tensions have added volatility to energy prices, supporting trader bets on limited further easing or slight tightening before year-end. These factors explain the concentration of probability around the current range rather than deeper cuts or aggressive hikes.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Khối lượng
$6,754,414Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent FOMC projections and market pricing indicate that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have shifted expectations toward modest rate hikes or holds through late 2026, positioning the 3.75% and 4.0% target ranges as the clearest consensus outcomes. The June dot plot showed a median endpoint near 3.75-4.0%, with nine participants favoring at least one increase this year, while July’s 9-3 decision to hold at 3.5-3.75% reflected divided views amid solid job gains and moderating but still-elevated CPI readings. Geopolitical tensions have added volatility to energy prices, supporting trader bets on limited further easing or slight tightening before year-end. These factors explain the concentration of probability around the current range rather than deeper cuts or aggressive hikes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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