The Iranian regime’s institutional resilience amid the 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the current trader consensus favoring continuity through 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei’s swift succession by the clerical establishment, combined with renewed pledges of allegiance from military, security, and judicial bodies, preserved core power structures despite airstrikes on nuclear and missile sites. Economic strains from sanctions, blockades, and wartime disruptions triggered protests that authorities contained through arrests and unity appeals, with no reported military defections or sustained uprisings as of mid-May. Ongoing ceasefire talks and Iranian proposals to dictate terms further signal leadership focus on stabilization rather than imminent collapse, aligning with assessments that external pressure alone has not eroded the regime’s control mechanisms ahead of potential diplomatic developments.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
$17,910,357 KL.
$17,910,357 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$17,910,357 KL.
$17,910,357 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s institutional resilience amid the 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the current trader consensus favoring continuity through 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei’s swift succession by the clerical establishment, combined with renewed pledges of allegiance from military, security, and judicial bodies, preserved core power structures despite airstrikes on nuclear and missile sites. Economic strains from sanctions, blockades, and wartime disruptions triggered protests that authorities contained through arrests and unity appeals, with no reported military defections or sustained uprisings as of mid-May. Ongoing ceasefire talks and Iranian proposals to dictate terms further signal leadership focus on stabilization rather than imminent collapse, aligning with assessments that external pressure alone has not eroded the regime’s control mechanisms ahead of potential diplomatic developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$17,910,357Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s institutional resilience amid the 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the current trader consensus favoring continuity through 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei’s swift succession by the clerical establishment, combined with renewed pledges of allegiance from military, security, and judicial bodies, preserved core power structures despite airstrikes on nuclear and missile sites. Economic strains from sanctions, blockades, and wartime disruptions triggered protests that authorities contained through arrests and unity appeals, with no reported military defections or sustained uprisings as of mid-May. Ongoing ceasefire talks and Iranian proposals to dictate terms further signal leadership focus on stabilization rather than imminent collapse, aligning with assessments that external pressure alone has not eroded the regime’s control mechanisms ahead of potential diplomatic developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$17,910,357Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s institutional resilience amid the 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the current trader consensus favoring continuity through 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei’s swift succession by the clerical establishment, combined with renewed pledges of allegiance from military, security, and judicial bodies, preserved core power structures despite airstrikes on nuclear and missile sites. Economic strains from sanctions, blockades, and wartime disruptions triggered protests that authorities contained through arrests and unity appeals, with no reported military defections or sustained uprisings as of mid-May. Ongoing ceasefire talks and Iranian proposals to dictate terms further signal leadership focus on stabilization rather than imminent collapse, aligning with assessments that external pressure alone has not eroded the regime’s control mechanisms ahead of potential diplomatic developments.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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