Ongoing military and diplomatic tensions between Iran and the United States have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a near-standstill since late February, with daily transits averaging well below 10 ships in recent weeks amid Iranian restrictions, toll demands, and selective permissions. Shipping data from early May showed single-digit crossings on multiple days, including periods of zero or near-zero movement, reflecting persistent risks from naval presence, potential blockades, and insurance concerns. Limited exceptions for certain flagged vessels, such as some Chinese tankers, have not restored meaningful volume. With the ceasefire holding but no comprehensive reopening agreement in place by mid-May, trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to the lowest outcome range, as unresolved control over the chokepoint continues to deter normal tanker and cargo flows.