Recent inflation trends and Federal Reserve communications continue to anchor trader sentiment for the July 2026 Core PCE month-over-month print. The dominant 0.2% outcome at 63.5% implied probability aligns with consensus economist forecasts and the recent moderation in underlying price pressures, while the 0.3% scenario at 28.5% reflects residual upside risks from services inflation. Markets price in a data-dependent policy path, with Treasury yields and Fed funds futures sensitive to any deviation. Key upcoming releases, including August CPI and labor market indicators, will refine expectations ahead of the PCE report and shape near-term rate cut probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0.2% 64%
0.3% 30%
0.1% 6.9%
0.4%+ 1.1%
$30,609 交易量
$30,609 交易量
2026-08-26
≤-0.2%
<1%
-0.1%
<1%
0.0%
<1%
0.1%
7%
0.2%
64%
0.3%
30%
0.4%+
1%
0.2% 64%
0.3% 30%
0.1% 6.9%
0.4%+ 1.1%
$30,609 交易量
$30,609 交易量
2026-08-26
≤-0.2%
$606 交易量
<1%
-0.1%
$831 交易量
<1%
0.0%
$1,045 交易量
<1%
0.1%
$3,138 交易量
7%
0.2%
$4,481 交易量
64%
0.3%
$17,426 交易量
30%
0.4%+
$3,082 交易量
1%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent inflation trends and Federal Reserve communications continue to anchor trader sentiment for the July 2026 Core PCE month-over-month print. The dominant 0.2% outcome at 63.5% implied probability aligns with consensus economist forecasts and the recent moderation in underlying price pressures, while the 0.3% scenario at 28.5% reflects residual upside risks from services inflation. Markets price in a data-dependent policy path, with Treasury yields and Fed funds futures sensitive to any deviation. Key upcoming releases, including August CPI and labor market indicators, will refine expectations ahead of the PCE report and shape near-term rate cut probabilities.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
市場開放時間： Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$30,609結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent inflation trends and Federal Reserve communications continue to anchor trader sentiment for the July 2026 Core PCE month-over-month print. The dominant 0.2% outcome at 63.5% implied probability aligns with consensus economist forecasts and the recent moderation in underlying price pressures, while the 0.3% scenario at 28.5% reflects residual upside risks from services inflation. Markets price in a data-dependent policy path, with Treasury yields and Fed funds futures sensitive to any deviation. Key upcoming releases, including August CPI and labor market indicators, will refine expectations ahead of the PCE report and shape near-term rate cut probabilities.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
交易量
$30,609結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation trends and Federal Reserve communications continue to anchor trader sentiment for the July 2026 Core PCE month-over-month print. The dominant 0.2% outcome at 63.5% implied probability aligns with consensus economist forecasts and the recent moderation in underlying price pressures, while the 0.3% scenario at 28.5% reflects residual upside risks from services inflation. Markets price in a data-dependent policy path, with Treasury yields and Fed funds futures sensitive to any deviation. Key upcoming releases, including August CPI and labor market indicators, will refine expectations ahead of the PCE report and shape near-term rate cut probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions