Erdoğan's current presidential term runs through 2028 under Turkey's constitution, with the next scheduled elections set for May of that year and no parliamentary majority available to force a snap vote before late 2026. The ruling alliance controls enough seats to prevent early elections that could trigger term-limit exceptions, while sustained legal actions against opposition figures have further reduced near-term challenges to his position. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" reflects these structural barriers and the absence of acute political or institutional triggers for removal in the remaining months of 2026. Late developments such as a sudden health crisis, internal coalition fracture, or unexpected mass mobilization could still shift probabilities, though none appear imminent based on recent patterns.