Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current presidential term runs through the scheduled 2028 election, and the ruling AKP’s parliamentary majority has blocked opposition demands for a snap vote before then. Erdoğan himself has described 2026 as a “year of reform” and shown no intention of stepping down early, while earlier health rumors from February have produced no institutional action or confirmation of incapacity. With no credible legal or political mechanism for removal before December 2026 and the next electoral test still two years away, traders assign an 89.5 percent probability that he will remain in office through year-end, consistent with the constitutional timetable and the absence of recent developments that would alter that outlook.