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icon for 2026年火人節期間的最高溫度?

2026年火人節期間的最高溫度?

icon for 2026年火人節期間的最高溫度?

2026年火人節期間的最高溫度?

87-88°F 45%

91-92°F 28%

95-96°F 28%

93-94°F 27%

Polymarket
最新

87-88°F 45%

91-92°F 28%

95-96°F 28%

93-94°F 27%

Polymarket
最新

86°F或以下

$0 交易量

25%

87-88°F

$0 交易量

45%

89-90°F

$0 交易量

25%

91-92°F

$0 交易量

28%

93-94°F

$0 交易量

27%

95-96°F

$0 交易量

28%

華氏97度或以上

$0 交易量

26%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F). The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days. The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page. This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20). Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service indicate a cooling trend driven by a passing cold front, with daytime highs in the Black Rock Desert expected to peak in the low-to-mid 80s°F during the August 30–September 7 event window after pre-event readings near 94°F. This reflects typical late-summer steering patterns and reduced insolation as September approaches, though model runs still show variability from afternoon wind gusts and residual moisture. Trader consensus across the closely matched 38–41% bins for bins from 86°F or below through 97°F+ underscores genuine forecast uncertainty in peak daily maxima, with new NWS updates expected to refine diurnal ranges and any localized heating on the playa. Historical climatology for the region favors 90–100°F peaks, making current cooler guidance the key near-term driver.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).

The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.

The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.

This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-09-08
市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F). The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days. The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page. This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F). The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days. The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page. This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20). Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service indicate a cooling trend driven by a passing cold front, with daytime highs in the Black Rock Desert expected to peak in the low-to-mid 80s°F during the August 30–September 7 event window after pre-event readings near 94°F. This reflects typical late-summer steering patterns and reduced insolation as September approaches, though model runs still show variability from afternoon wind gusts and residual moisture. Trader consensus across the closely matched 38–41% bins for bins from 86°F or below through 97°F+ underscores genuine forecast uncertainty in peak daily maxima, with new NWS updates expected to refine diurnal ranges and any localized heating on the playa. Historical climatology for the region favors 90–100°F peaks, making current cooler guidance the key near-term driver.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).

The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.

The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.

This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-09-08
市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F). The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days. The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page. This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年火人節期間的最高溫度?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "87-88°F" at 45%, followed by "91-92°F" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026年火人節期間的最高溫度?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026年火人節期間的最高溫度?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年火人節期間的最高溫度?" is "87-88°F" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "91-92°F" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年火人節期間的最高溫度?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.