Current numerical weather prediction models and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration project a daytime maximum of 36–37°C in Chongqing on August 12, 2026, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 60% and 30% implied probability. Subtropical monsoon circulation, combined with the city's basin topography that limits ventilation and enhances heat retention, supports these values against an August climatological average high near 33–35°C. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread, with minimal risk of stronger advection or cloud cover suppressing the peak, while recent observations from nearby stations confirm ongoing warm advection without extreme heat-wave intensification. Traders weigh these model consensus signals heavily, noting that any late-day revision in boundary-layer conditions could shift resolution between the two dominant bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月12日重慶氣溫最高?
36°C 60%
37°C 29%
38°C 9%
40°C <1%
$54,299 交易量
$54,299 交易量
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
60%
37°C
29%
38°C
9%
39°C
1%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
<1%
36°C 60%
37°C 29%
38°C 9%
40°C <1%
$54,299 交易量
$54,299 交易量
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
60%
37°C
29%
38°C
9%
39°C
1%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current numerical weather prediction models and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration project a daytime maximum of 36–37°C in Chongqing on August 12, 2026, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 60% and 30% implied probability. Subtropical monsoon circulation, combined with the city's basin topography that limits ventilation and enhances heat retention, supports these values against an August climatological average high near 33–35°C. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread, with minimal risk of stronger advection or cloud cover suppressing the peak, while recent observations from nearby stations confirm ongoing warm advection without extreme heat-wave intensification. Traders weigh these model consensus signals heavily, noting that any late-day revision in boundary-layer conditions could shift resolution between the two dominant bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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