Recent weather model consensus from agencies like ECMWF and national meteorological services points to a stable subtropical ridge over the Mediterranean sustaining southerly flow and clear skies, positioning Milan’s August 12 maximum near 34–35 °C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with only modest potential for 36 °C if boundary-layer mixing strengthens or slight downward revision if a weak Atlantic trough arrives earlier than currently projected. Mid-August climatology places normal highs near 29–30 °C, so the current anomaly of +4–6 °C reflects the dominant high-pressure pattern; traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 35 °C as the most consistent outcome across updated model runs expected in the next 24 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月12日米蘭的最高溫度?
35°C 46%
34°C 35%
36°C 10%
33°C 8%
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
8%
34°C
35%
35°C
46%
36°C
10%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 46%
34°C 35%
36°C 10%
33°C 8%
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
8%
34°C
35%
35°C
46%
36°C
10%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent weather model consensus from agencies like ECMWF and national meteorological services points to a stable subtropical ridge over the Mediterranean sustaining southerly flow and clear skies, positioning Milan’s August 12 maximum near 34–35 °C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with only modest potential for 36 °C if boundary-layer mixing strengthens or slight downward revision if a weak Atlantic trough arrives earlier than currently projected. Mid-August climatology places normal highs near 29–30 °C, so the current anomaly of +4–6 °C reflects the dominant high-pressure pattern; traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 35 °C as the most consistent outcome across updated model runs expected in the next 24 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於


警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions