Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a highest temperature of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on August 25, driven by persistent monsoon moisture, widespread cloud cover, and periods of moderate to heavy rain that limit solar heating and diurnal rise. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering around 30–33°C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity that can suppress or allow brief peaks near 33°C. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, but active convective patterns this week introduce downward pressure on maxima compared with clearer periods. Updated regional model runs and official Shenzhen bureau guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the resolution threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月25日深圳最高溫度？
8月25日深圳最高溫度？
32°C 27%
31°C 26%
30°C 18%
33°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-25
25°C or below
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
4%
28°C
4%
29°C
5%
30°C
18%
31°C
26%
32°C
27%
33°C
12%
34°C
3%
35°C or higher
1%
32°C 27%
31°C 26%
30°C 18%
33°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-25
25°C or below
$5 交易量
2%
26°C
$5 交易量
4%
27°C
$160 交易量
4%
28°C
$0 交易量
4%
29°C
$0 交易量
5%
30°C
$10 交易量
18%
31°C
$35 交易量
26%
32°C
$41 交易量
27%
33°C
$0 交易量
12%
34°C
$277 交易量
3%
35°C or higher
$5 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a highest temperature of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on August 25, driven by persistent monsoon moisture, widespread cloud cover, and periods of moderate to heavy rain that limit solar heating and diurnal rise. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering around 30–33°C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity that can suppress or allow brief peaks near 33°C. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, but active convective patterns this week introduce downward pressure on maxima compared with clearer periods. Updated regional model runs and official Shenzhen bureau guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$538結束日期
2026-08-25市場開放時間
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a highest temperature of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on August 25, driven by persistent monsoon moisture, widespread cloud cover, and periods of moderate to heavy rain that limit solar heating and diurnal rise. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering around 30–33°C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity that can suppress or allow brief peaks near 33°C. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, but active convective patterns this week introduce downward pressure on maxima compared with clearer periods. Updated regional model runs and official Shenzhen bureau guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$538結束日期
2026-08-25市場開放時間
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a highest temperature of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on August 25, driven by persistent monsoon moisture, widespread cloud cover, and periods of moderate to heavy rain that limit solar heating and diurnal rise. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering around 30–33°C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity that can suppress or allow brief peaks near 33°C. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, but active convective patterns this week introduce downward pressure on maxima compared with clearer periods. Updated regional model runs and official Shenzhen bureau guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the resolution threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions