**As of mid-August 2026, credible trackers including Ballotpedia report 37 Republican House incumbents not seeking re-election, anchoring the 36–39 outcome at roughly 80% probability.** This count reflects a mix of outright retirements from public office, bids for Senate or governor seats, and a smaller number of resignations. Recent patterns show elevated GOP departures consistent with a narrow House majority and midterm pressures, with announcements accumulating steadily through 2025 and into 2026 but slowing in recent weeks. Traders view further large shifts before the late-August resolution as unlikely absent major late announcements, keeping adjacent bins such as 40–43 at single-digit probabilities. The market consensus therefore centers on the current verified total and the limited remaining window for new decisions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於36–39 79.8%
40–43 6.2%
44人以上 2.7%
24–27 1.6%
$71,802 交易量
$71,802 交易量
2026-08-31
少於24
1%
24–27
2%
28–31
<1%
32–35
1%
36–39
80%
40–43
6%
44人以上
3%
36–39 79.8%
40–43 6.2%
44人以上 2.7%
24–27 1.6%
$71,802 交易量
$71,802 交易量
2026-08-31
少於24
$6,261 交易量
1%
24–27
$20,159 交易量
2%
28–31
$23,643 交易量
<1%
32–35
$6,169 交易量
1%
36–39
$8,143 交易量
80%
40–43
$3,866 交易量
6%
44人以上
$3,561 交易量
3%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-August 2026, credible trackers including Ballotpedia report 37 Republican House incumbents not seeking re-election, anchoring the 36–39 outcome at roughly 80% probability.** This count reflects a mix of outright retirements from public office, bids for Senate or governor seats, and a smaller number of resignations. Recent patterns show elevated GOP departures consistent with a narrow House majority and midterm pressures, with announcements accumulating steadily through 2025 and into 2026 but slowing in recent weeks. Traders view further large shifts before the late-August resolution as unlikely absent major late announcements, keeping adjacent bins such as 40–43 at single-digit probabilities. The market consensus therefore centers on the current verified total and the limited remaining window for new decisions.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
交易量
$71,802結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-August 2026, credible trackers including Ballotpedia report 37 Republican House incumbents not seeking re-election, anchoring the 36–39 outcome at roughly 80% probability.** This count reflects a mix of outright retirements from public office, bids for Senate or governor seats, and a smaller number of resignations. Recent patterns show elevated GOP departures consistent with a narrow House majority and midterm pressures, with announcements accumulating steadily through 2025 and into 2026 but slowing in recent weeks. Traders view further large shifts before the late-August resolution as unlikely absent major late announcements, keeping adjacent bins such as 40–43 at single-digit probabilities. The market consensus therefore centers on the current verified total and the limited remaining window for new decisions.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$71,802結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**As of mid-August 2026, credible trackers including Ballotpedia report 37 Republican House incumbents not seeking re-election, anchoring the 36–39 outcome at roughly 80% probability.** This count reflects a mix of outright retirements from public office, bids for Senate or governor seats, and a smaller number of resignations. Recent patterns show elevated GOP departures consistent with a narrow House majority and midterm pressures, with announcements accumulating steadily through 2025 and into 2026 but slowing in recent weeks. Traders view further large shifts before the late-August resolution as unlikely absent major late announcements, keeping adjacent bins such as 40–43 at single-digit probabilities. The market consensus therefore centers on the current verified total and the limited remaining window for new decisions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions