Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, anchoring trader consensus around that exact total. Recent retirements include Steve Daines of Montana in March 2026 and Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma shortly thereafter, joining earlier decisions by Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Cynthia Lummis, Mitch McConnell, and Tommy Tuberville, who is pursuing the Alabama governorship instead. No additional GOP senators have signaled departure in the past month, limiting upward movement in probability for higher counts such as eight or eleven. Historical patterns of late-cycle announcements and the current absence of new signals keep the market tightly focused on whether any remaining Class II Republican incumbents alter their plans before the filing deadlines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7 69%
11 21.1%
8 14.6%
6 10.1%
$73,769 交易量
$73,769 交易量
2026-08-31
少於5人
1%
5
5%
6
10%
7
69%
8
17%
9
4%
10
3%
11
21%
12+
1%
7 69%
11 21.1%
8 14.6%
6 10.1%
$73,769 交易量
$73,769 交易量
2026-08-31
少於5人
$20,070 交易量
1%
5
$15,535 交易量
5%
6
$26,450 交易量
10%
7
$2,145 交易量
69%
8
$1,599 交易量
17%
9
$1,328 交易量
4%
10
$1,303 交易量
3%
11
$923 交易量
21%
12+
$4,416 交易量
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, anchoring trader consensus around that exact total. Recent retirements include Steve Daines of Montana in March 2026 and Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma shortly thereafter, joining earlier decisions by Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Cynthia Lummis, Mitch McConnell, and Tommy Tuberville, who is pursuing the Alabama governorship instead. No additional GOP senators have signaled departure in the past month, limiting upward movement in probability for higher counts such as eight or eleven. Historical patterns of late-cycle announcements and the current absence of new signals keep the market tightly focused on whether any remaining Class II Republican incumbents alter their plans before the filing deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$73,769結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, anchoring trader consensus around that exact total. Recent retirements include Steve Daines of Montana in March 2026 and Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma shortly thereafter, joining earlier decisions by Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Cynthia Lummis, Mitch McConnell, and Tommy Tuberville, who is pursuing the Alabama governorship instead. No additional GOP senators have signaled departure in the past month, limiting upward movement in probability for higher counts such as eight or eleven. Historical patterns of late-cycle announcements and the current absence of new signals keep the market tightly focused on whether any remaining Class II Republican incumbents alter their plans before the filing deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$73,769結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, anchoring trader consensus around that exact total. Recent retirements include Steve Daines of Montana in March 2026 and Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma shortly thereafter, joining earlier decisions by Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Cynthia Lummis, Mitch McConnell, and Tommy Tuberville, who is pursuing the Alabama governorship instead. No additional GOP senators have signaled departure in the past month, limiting upward movement in probability for higher counts such as eight or eleven. Historical patterns of late-cycle announcements and the current absence of new signals keep the market tightly focused on whether any remaining Class II Republican incumbents alter their plans before the filing deadlines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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