Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying much of Iran’s centrifuge capacity and leaving substantial stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium potentially buried under rubble. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran requires roughly one year to produce a nuclear device, with no resumption of uranium enrichment observed and IAEA inspectors facing restricted access to affected locations. These developments have extended Iran’s breakout timeline, underpinning traders’ strong consensus against a nuclear test before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$192,428 交易量
$192,428 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$192,428 交易量
$192,428 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying much of Iran’s centrifuge capacity and leaving substantial stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium potentially buried under rubble. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran requires roughly one year to produce a nuclear device, with no resumption of uranium enrichment observed and IAEA inspectors facing restricted access to affected locations. These developments have extended Iran’s breakout timeline, underpinning traders’ strong consensus against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$192,428結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying much of Iran’s centrifuge capacity and leaving substantial stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium potentially buried under rubble. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran requires roughly one year to produce a nuclear device, with no resumption of uranium enrichment observed and IAEA inspectors facing restricted access to affected locations. These developments have extended Iran’s breakout timeline, underpinning traders’ strong consensus against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$192,428結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying much of Iran’s centrifuge capacity and leaving substantial stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium potentially buried under rubble. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran requires roughly one year to produce a nuclear device, with no resumption of uranium enrichment observed and IAEA inspectors facing restricted access to affected locations. These developments have extended Iran’s breakout timeline, underpinning traders’ strong consensus against a nuclear test before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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