Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, disrupting operations and limiting access to highly enriched uranium stockpiles while prompting Iran to seal tunnels and pursue limited reconstruction at sites like Parchin. IAEA reporting confirms reduced enrichment activity and verification gaps, with Tehran prioritizing recovery and diplomatic talks over rapid weaponization. These developments, combined with sustained sanctions and monitoring, underpin trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027. Late shifts could still arise from undetected underground work, policy changes amid leadership transitions, or renewed escalation altering deterrence calculations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
$248,604 交易量
$248,604 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 機率
$248,604 交易量
$248,604 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, disrupting operations and limiting access to highly enriched uranium stockpiles while prompting Iran to seal tunnels and pursue limited reconstruction at sites like Parchin. IAEA reporting confirms reduced enrichment activity and verification gaps, with Tehran prioritizing recovery and diplomatic talks over rapid weaponization. These developments, combined with sustained sanctions and monitoring, underpin trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027. Late shifts could still arise from undetected underground work, policy changes amid leadership transitions, or renewed escalation altering deterrence calculations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$248,604結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, disrupting operations and limiting access to highly enriched uranium stockpiles while prompting Iran to seal tunnels and pursue limited reconstruction at sites like Parchin. IAEA reporting confirms reduced enrichment activity and verification gaps, with Tehran prioritizing recovery and diplomatic talks over rapid weaponization. These developments, combined with sustained sanctions and monitoring, underpin trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027. Late shifts could still arise from undetected underground work, policy changes amid leadership transitions, or renewed escalation altering deterrence calculations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$248,604結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, disrupting operations and limiting access to highly enriched uranium stockpiles while prompting Iran to seal tunnels and pursue limited reconstruction at sites like Parchin. IAEA reporting confirms reduced enrichment activity and verification gaps, with Tehran prioritizing recovery and diplomatic talks over rapid weaponization. These developments, combined with sustained sanctions and monitoring, underpin trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027. Late shifts could still arise from undetected underground work, policy changes amid leadership transitions, or renewed escalation altering deterrence calculations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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