**Persistent hot and humid conditions under southerly flow are keeping overnight lows elevated near 77–79°F for Austin on September 14.** Multiple forecasts, including those from WeatherBug, global models, and local stations, project a minimum in the mid-to-upper 70s, with daytime highs near 99–100°F and only modest cloud cover or light winds that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around the 74–79°F bins (combined ~80% implied probability), as traders price in the consensus from official guidance showing no frontal passage or significant moisture reduction to allow sharper drops. Key differentiating factors include exact dew-point levels, wind speeds (currently 5–10 mph south with gusts to 25 mph), and any last-minute model shifts in cloud cover that could alter overnight temperatures by a degree or two. Historical September averages (~68°F low) are far below current readings due to the ongoing heat wave, but traders correctly discount that baseline given the verified persistence of tropical moisture and high pressure. With resolution imminent, the narrow spread in leading outcomes reflects minor uncertainty in final observational data rather than divergent scientific scenarios.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月14日奧斯汀最低溫度？
9月14日奧斯汀最低溫度？
76-77°F 40%
70-71°F 39%
72-73°F 39%
80-81°F 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
69°F或以下
15%
70-71°F
39%
72-73°F
39%
74-75°F
28%
76-77°F
29%
78-79°F
24%
80-81°F
39%
82-83°F
39%
84-85°F
39%
86-87°F
17%
88°F或以上
9%
76-77°F 40%
70-71°F 39%
72-73°F 39%
80-81°F 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
69°F或以下
$0 交易量
15%
70-71°F
$0 交易量
39%
72-73°F
$0 交易量
39%
74-75°F
$0 交易量
28%
76-77°F
$5 交易量
29%
78-79°F
$0 交易量
24%
80-81°F
$0 交易量
39%
82-83°F
$0 交易量
39%
84-85°F
$0 交易量
39%
86-87°F
$0 交易量
17%
88°F或以上
$0 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent hot and humid conditions under southerly flow are keeping overnight lows elevated near 77–79°F for Austin on September 14.** Multiple forecasts, including those from WeatherBug, global models, and local stations, project a minimum in the mid-to-upper 70s, with daytime highs near 99–100°F and only modest cloud cover or light winds that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around the 74–79°F bins (combined ~80% implied probability), as traders price in the consensus from official guidance showing no frontal passage or significant moisture reduction to allow sharper drops.
Key differentiating factors include exact dew-point levels, wind speeds (currently 5–10 mph south with gusts to 25 mph), and any last-minute model shifts in cloud cover that could alter overnight temperatures by a degree or two. Historical September averages (~68°F low) are far below current readings due to the ongoing heat wave, but traders correctly discount that baseline given the verified persistence of tropical moisture and high pressure. With resolution imminent, the narrow spread in leading outcomes reflects minor uncertainty in final observational data rather than divergent scientific scenarios.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
交易量
$5結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent hot and humid conditions under southerly flow are keeping overnight lows elevated near 77–79°F for Austin on September 14.** Multiple forecasts, including those from WeatherBug, global models, and local stations, project a minimum in the mid-to-upper 70s, with daytime highs near 99–100°F and only modest cloud cover or light winds that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around the 74–79°F bins (combined ~80% implied probability), as traders price in the consensus from official guidance showing no frontal passage or significant moisture reduction to allow sharper drops.
Key differentiating factors include exact dew-point levels, wind speeds (currently 5–10 mph south with gusts to 25 mph), and any last-minute model shifts in cloud cover that could alter overnight temperatures by a degree or two. Historical September averages (~68°F low) are far below current readings due to the ongoing heat wave, but traders correctly discount that baseline given the verified persistence of tropical moisture and high pressure. With resolution imminent, the narrow spread in leading outcomes reflects minor uncertainty in final observational data rather than divergent scientific scenarios.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$5結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ET**Persistent hot and humid conditions under southerly flow are keeping overnight lows elevated near 77–79°F for Austin on September 14.** Multiple forecasts, including those from WeatherBug, global models, and local stations, project a minimum in the mid-to-upper 70s, with daytime highs near 99–100°F and only modest cloud cover or light winds that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around the 74–79°F bins (combined ~80% implied probability), as traders price in the consensus from official guidance showing no frontal passage or significant moisture reduction to allow sharper drops. Key differentiating factors include exact dew-point levels, wind speeds (currently 5–10 mph south with gusts to 25 mph), and any last-minute model shifts in cloud cover that could alter overnight temperatures by a degree or two. Historical September averages (~68°F low) are far below current readings due to the ongoing heat wave, but traders correctly discount that baseline given the verified persistence of tropical moisture and high pressure. With resolution imminent, the narrow spread in leading outcomes reflects minor uncertainty in final observational data rather than divergent scientific scenarios.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions