Recent forecast models from major meteorological agencies indicate clear skies, light winds, and strong radiative cooling overnight across Beijing on September 11, 2026, supporting an expected minimum near 13°C—well below the 1991–2020 average low of 17.1°C. This atmospheric setup, with dew points in the mid-50s°F and minimal cloud cover, has driven the 93% market-implied probability for 13°C as traders align with consensus model runs. Historical records show September lows rarely dip this far without specific synoptic patterns, yet current conditions match those analogs closely. A shift in observed readings from official stations or late-evening cloud development could push the minimum above 13°C, though such revisions appear unlikely given the stable high-pressure regime.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月11日北京最低溫度？
9月11日北京最低溫度？
13°C 100.0%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$2,055 交易量
$2,055 交易量
2026-09-11
10°C或以下
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
是
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C或以上
否
13°C 100.0%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$2,055 交易量
$2,055 交易量
2026-09-11
10°C或以下
$15 交易量
否
11°C
$46 交易量
否
12°C
$103 交易量
否
13°C
$224 交易量
是
14°C
$219 交易量
否
15°C
$1,323 交易量
否
16°C
$25 交易量
否
17°C
$25 交易量
否
18°C
$25 交易量
否
19°C
$25 交易量
否
20°C或以上
$25 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from major meteorological agencies indicate clear skies, light winds, and strong radiative cooling overnight across Beijing on September 11, 2026, supporting an expected minimum near 13°C—well below the 1991–2020 average low of 17.1°C. This atmospheric setup, with dew points in the mid-50s°F and minimal cloud cover, has driven the 93% market-implied probability for 13°C as traders align with consensus model runs. Historical records show September lows rarely dip this far without specific synoptic patterns, yet current conditions match those analogs closely. A shift in observed readings from official stations or late-evening cloud development could push the minimum above 13°C, though such revisions appear unlikely given the stable high-pressure regime.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,055結束日期
2026-09-11市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from major meteorological agencies indicate clear skies, light winds, and strong radiative cooling overnight across Beijing on September 11, 2026, supporting an expected minimum near 13°C—well below the 1991–2020 average low of 17.1°C. This atmospheric setup, with dew points in the mid-50s°F and minimal cloud cover, has driven the 93% market-implied probability for 13°C as traders align with consensus model runs. Historical records show September lows rarely dip this far without specific synoptic patterns, yet current conditions match those analogs closely. A shift in observed readings from official stations or late-evening cloud development could push the minimum above 13°C, though such revisions appear unlikely given the stable high-pressure regime.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,055結束日期
2026-09-11市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Recent forecast models from major meteorological agencies indicate clear skies, light winds, and strong radiative cooling overnight across Beijing on September 11, 2026, supporting an expected minimum near 13°C—well below the 1991–2020 average low of 17.1°C. This atmospheric setup, with dew points in the mid-50s°F and minimal cloud cover, has driven the 93% market-implied probability for 13°C as traders align with consensus model runs. Historical records show September lows rarely dip this far without specific synoptic patterns, yet current conditions match those analogs closely. A shift in observed readings from official stations or late-evening cloud development could push the minimum above 13°C, though such revisions appear unlikely given the stable high-pressure regime.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions