Trader consensus on Beijing’s September 15 minimum temperature remains closely split because numerical weather models show only modest overnight cooling under clear, high-pressure conditions with light variable winds. Official guidance and ensemble runs place the expected low near 15–18 °C, consistent with climatological September averages, yet small differences in boundary-layer humidity, wind speed, and radiational cooling rates can shift the actual minimum by 2–3 °C. This inherent forecast spread, typical for a calm autumn night, sustains balanced probabilities across the 9 °C-or-below, 14 °C, and 19 °C-or-higher brackets while underscoring the value of updated model runs and observational data ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月15日北京最低溫度？
9月15日北京最低溫度？
9°C或以下 64%
19°C或以上 64%
14°C 40%
17°C 38%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
9°C或以下
64%
10°C
9%
11°C
5%
12°C
22%
13°C
22%
14°C
23%
15°C
22%
16°C
21%
17°C
38%
18°C
38%
19°C或以上
64%
9°C或以下 64%
19°C或以上 64%
14°C 40%
17°C 38%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
9°C或以下
$10 交易量
64%
10°C
$30 交易量
9%
11°C
$0 交易量
5%
12°C
$0 交易量
22%
13°C
$0 交易量
22%
14°C
$3 交易量
23%
15°C
$0 交易量
22%
16°C
$86 交易量
21%
17°C
$70 交易量
38%
18°C
$10 交易量
38%
19°C或以上
$10 交易量
64%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on Beijing’s September 15 minimum temperature remains closely split because numerical weather models show only modest overnight cooling under clear, high-pressure conditions with light variable winds. Official guidance and ensemble runs place the expected low near 15–18 °C, consistent with climatological September averages, yet small differences in boundary-layer humidity, wind speed, and radiational cooling rates can shift the actual minimum by 2–3 °C. This inherent forecast spread, typical for a calm autumn night, sustains balanced probabilities across the 9 °C-or-below, 14 °C, and 19 °C-or-higher brackets while underscoring the value of updated model runs and observational data ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
交易量
$219結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on Beijing’s September 15 minimum temperature remains closely split because numerical weather models show only modest overnight cooling under clear, high-pressure conditions with light variable winds. Official guidance and ensemble runs place the expected low near 15–18 °C, consistent with climatological September averages, yet small differences in boundary-layer humidity, wind speed, and radiational cooling rates can shift the actual minimum by 2–3 °C. This inherent forecast spread, typical for a calm autumn night, sustains balanced probabilities across the 9 °C-or-below, 14 °C, and 19 °C-or-higher brackets while underscoring the value of updated model runs and observational data ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$219結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETTrader consensus on Beijing’s September 15 minimum temperature remains closely split because numerical weather models show only modest overnight cooling under clear, high-pressure conditions with light variable winds. Official guidance and ensemble runs place the expected low near 15–18 °C, consistent with climatological September averages, yet small differences in boundary-layer humidity, wind speed, and radiational cooling rates can shift the actual minimum by 2–3 °C. This inherent forecast spread, typical for a calm autumn night, sustains balanced probabilities across the 9 °C-or-below, 14 °C, and 19 °C-or-higher brackets while underscoring the value of updated model runs and observational data ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions