Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Chengdu's minimum temperature on September 23 will likely fall between 17°C and 20°C under cloudy skies with intermittent light rain, driven by a moist air mass and reduced diurnal heating in the Sichuan basin. This setup creates genuine uncertainty around the precise low, as variations in cloud thickness, rainfall timing, and boundary-layer mixing could shift the outcome several degrees either way. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with equal weighting on sub-15°C or 25°C-plus scenarios alongside 20% odds for each integer from 16°C to 24°C, underscoring how small forecast adjustments near the event could rapidly alter implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月23日成都最低溫度？
9月23日成都最低溫度？
15°C或以下 100%
25°C或更高 98%
19°C 40%
20°C 40%
最新
最新
2026-09-23
15°C或以下
100%
16°C
39%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C
40%
20°C
40%
21°C
30%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C或更高
98%
15°C或以下 100%
25°C或更高 98%
19°C 40%
20°C 40%
最新
最新
2026-09-23
15°C或以下
$0 交易量
100%
16°C
$0 交易量
39%
17°C
$0 交易量
39%
18°C
$0 交易量
39%
19°C
$0 交易量
40%
20°C
$0 交易量
40%
21°C
$0 交易量
30%
22°C
$0 交易量
39%
23°C
$0 交易量
39%
24°C
$0 交易量
39%
25°C或更高
$0 交易量
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Chengdu's minimum temperature on September 23 will likely fall between 17°C and 20°C under cloudy skies with intermittent light rain, driven by a moist air mass and reduced diurnal heating in the Sichuan basin. This setup creates genuine uncertainty around the precise low, as variations in cloud thickness, rainfall timing, and boundary-layer mixing could shift the outcome several degrees either way. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with equal weighting on sub-15°C or 25°C-plus scenarios alongside 20% odds for each integer from 16°C to 24°C, underscoring how small forecast adjustments near the event could rapidly alter implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-23市場開放時間
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Chengdu's minimum temperature on September 23 will likely fall between 17°C and 20°C under cloudy skies with intermittent light rain, driven by a moist air mass and reduced diurnal heating in the Sichuan basin. This setup creates genuine uncertainty around the precise low, as variations in cloud thickness, rainfall timing, and boundary-layer mixing could shift the outcome several degrees either way. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with equal weighting on sub-15°C or 25°C-plus scenarios alongside 20% odds for each integer from 16°C to 24°C, underscoring how small forecast adjustments near the event could rapidly alter implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-23市場開放時間
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent forecasts from multiple models indicate Chengdu's minimum temperature on September 23 will likely fall between 17°C and 20°C under cloudy skies with intermittent light rain, driven by a moist air mass and reduced diurnal heating in the Sichuan basin. This setup creates genuine uncertainty around the precise low, as variations in cloud thickness, rainfall timing, and boundary-layer mixing could shift the outcome several degrees either way. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with equal weighting on sub-15°C or 25°C-plus scenarios alongside 20% odds for each integer from 16°C to 24°C, underscoring how small forecast adjustments near the event could rapidly alter implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions