Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate overnight lows in Chengdu on September 21 will likely settle near 20–21°C amid persistent cloud cover and light southerly winds typical of the Sichuan basin in late September. These conditions limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures above seasonal norms for the date while suppressing any sharp drop that would favor sub-18°C outcomes. Trader consensus reflected in the 45% implied probability for 16°C or below appears driven by uncertainty in model spread and potential for clearer skies overnight, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such cooling. Final resolution will hinge on official station readings after midnight local time, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact minimum before markets close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月21日成都最低溫度？
9月21日成都最低溫度？
19°C 97%
17°C 94%
16°C或以下 90%
18°C 90%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
16°C或以下
90%
17°C
94%
18°C
90%
19°C
97%
20°C
50%
21°C
50%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C或更高
<1%
19°C 97%
17°C 94%
16°C或以下 90%
18°C 90%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
16°C或以下
$0 交易量
90%
17°C
$0 交易量
94%
18°C
$0 交易量
90%
19°C
$0 交易量
97%
20°C
$0 交易量
50%
21°C
$12 交易量
50%
22°C
$46 交易量
<1%
23°C
$31 交易量
<1%
24°C
$31 交易量
<1%
25°C
$31 交易量
<1%
26°C或更高
$31 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate overnight lows in Chengdu on September 21 will likely settle near 20–21°C amid persistent cloud cover and light southerly winds typical of the Sichuan basin in late September. These conditions limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures above seasonal norms for the date while suppressing any sharp drop that would favor sub-18°C outcomes. Trader consensus reflected in the 45% implied probability for 16°C or below appears driven by uncertainty in model spread and potential for clearer skies overnight, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such cooling. Final resolution will hinge on official station readings after midnight local time, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact minimum before markets close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$182結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate overnight lows in Chengdu on September 21 will likely settle near 20–21°C amid persistent cloud cover and light southerly winds typical of the Sichuan basin in late September. These conditions limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures above seasonal norms for the date while suppressing any sharp drop that would favor sub-18°C outcomes. Trader consensus reflected in the 45% implied probability for 16°C or below appears driven by uncertainty in model spread and potential for clearer skies overnight, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such cooling. Final resolution will hinge on official station readings after midnight local time, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact minimum before markets close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$182結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate overnight lows in Chengdu on September 21 will likely settle near 20–21°C amid persistent cloud cover and light southerly winds typical of the Sichuan basin in late September. These conditions limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures above seasonal norms for the date while suppressing any sharp drop that would favor sub-18°C outcomes. Trader consensus reflected in the 45% implied probability for 16°C or below appears driven by uncertainty in model spread and potential for clearer skies overnight, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such cooling. Final resolution will hinge on official station readings after midnight local time, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact minimum before markets close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions