Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila indicate a 25–31°C range on August 25 with 60–80% rain chances under the southwest monsoon, yet market-implied odds cluster near the extremes at 43.5% each for ≤21°C or ≥31°C. This reflects genuine forecast uncertainty two days out, as variable habagat moisture and cloud cover can sharply alter nighttime radiative cooling and minimum temperatures. Heavy rainfall tends to limit daytime heating while suppressing nocturnal drops below the seasonal 24–26°C baseline, but clearer breaks or stronger winds could push lows lower. Traders appear to weigh model spread on convective activity and steering patterns, with upcoming official updates likely to narrow the range ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月25日馬尼拉的最低溫度？
8月25日馬尼拉的最低溫度？
21°C或以下 43%
31°C或以上 43%
22°C 42%
28°C 42%
最新
最新
2026-08-25
21°C或以下
43%
22°C
42%
23°C
23%
24°C
23%
25°C
28%
26°C
28%
27°C
28%
28°C
42%
29°C
22%
30°C
2%
31°C或以上
43%
21°C或以下 43%
31°C或以上 43%
22°C 42%
28°C 42%
最新
最新
2026-08-25
21°C或以下
$5 交易量
43%
22°C
$5 交易量
42%
23°C
$0 交易量
23%
24°C
$0 交易量
23%
25°C
$0 交易量
28%
26°C
$0 交易量
28%
27°C
$0 交易量
28%
28°C
$5 交易量
42%
29°C
$5 交易量
22%
30°C
$5 交易量
2%
31°C或以上
$5 交易量
43%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila indicate a 25–31°C range on August 25 with 60–80% rain chances under the southwest monsoon, yet market-implied odds cluster near the extremes at 43.5% each for ≤21°C or ≥31°C. This reflects genuine forecast uncertainty two days out, as variable habagat moisture and cloud cover can sharply alter nighttime radiative cooling and minimum temperatures. Heavy rainfall tends to limit daytime heating while suppressing nocturnal drops below the seasonal 24–26°C baseline, but clearer breaks or stronger winds could push lows lower. Traders appear to weigh model spread on convective activity and steering patterns, with upcoming official updates likely to narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
交易量
$30結束日期
2026-08-25市場開放時間
Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila indicate a 25–31°C range on August 25 with 60–80% rain chances under the southwest monsoon, yet market-implied odds cluster near the extremes at 43.5% each for ≤21°C or ≥31°C. This reflects genuine forecast uncertainty two days out, as variable habagat moisture and cloud cover can sharply alter nighttime radiative cooling and minimum temperatures. Heavy rainfall tends to limit daytime heating while suppressing nocturnal drops below the seasonal 24–26°C baseline, but clearer breaks or stronger winds could push lows lower. Traders appear to weigh model spread on convective activity and steering patterns, with upcoming official updates likely to narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$30結束日期
2026-08-25市場開放時間
Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ETRecent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila indicate a 25–31°C range on August 25 with 60–80% rain chances under the southwest monsoon, yet market-implied odds cluster near the extremes at 43.5% each for ≤21°C or ≥31°C. This reflects genuine forecast uncertainty two days out, as variable habagat moisture and cloud cover can sharply alter nighttime radiative cooling and minimum temperatures. Heavy rainfall tends to limit daytime heating while suppressing nocturnal drops below the seasonal 24–26°C baseline, but clearer breaks or stronger winds could push lows lower. Traders appear to weigh model spread on convective activity and steering patterns, with upcoming official updates likely to narrow the range ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions