**Trader consensus at 100% for a 23°C low reflects converging official observations and model guidance confirming Shanghai's minimum temperature on September 9, 2026, reached or settled at that threshold.** Real-time station data from central districts (e.g., Xujiahui ~23.9°C, Baoshan ~23.4°C) and broader network readings cluster tightly around 22–24°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate northerly winds, and dew points near 19–21°C that limited further radiative cooling overnight. Shanghai Meteorological Bureau forecasts and GFS/ECMWF consensus aligned on this narrow range, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky intensification expected. The market-implied odds treat the daily minimum—typically resolved from verified station networks—as effectively locked at 23°C. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted late-night drop below 22°C at the primary resolution station or a post-hoc measurement revision, though current conditions and timing make such shifts improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月9日上海最低溫度？
9月9日上海最低溫度？
23°C 100.0%
19°C或以下 <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$16,744 交易量
$16,744 交易量
2026-09-09
19°C或以下
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
是
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C或以上
否
23°C 100.0%
19°C或以下 <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$16,744 交易量
$16,744 交易量
2026-09-09
19°C或以下
$279 交易量
否
20°C
$365 交易量
否
21°C
$518 交易量
否
22°C
$1,845 交易量
否
23°C
$4,130 交易量
是
24°C
$6,685 交易量
否
25°C
$1,221 交易量
否
26°C
$347 交易量
否
27°C
$548 交易量
否
28°C
$411 交易量
否
29°C或以上
$396 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 100% for a 23°C low reflects converging official observations and model guidance confirming Shanghai's minimum temperature on September 9, 2026, reached or settled at that threshold.**
Real-time station data from central districts (e.g., Xujiahui ~23.9°C, Baoshan ~23.4°C) and broader network readings cluster tightly around 22–24°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate northerly winds, and dew points near 19–21°C that limited further radiative cooling overnight. Shanghai Meteorological Bureau forecasts and GFS/ECMWF consensus aligned on this narrow range, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky intensification expected. The market-implied odds treat the daily minimum—typically resolved from verified station networks—as effectively locked at 23°C.
A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted late-night drop below 22°C at the primary resolution station or a post-hoc measurement revision, though current conditions and timing make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$16,744結束日期
2026-09-09市場開放時間
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 100% for a 23°C low reflects converging official observations and model guidance confirming Shanghai's minimum temperature on September 9, 2026, reached or settled at that threshold.**
Real-time station data from central districts (e.g., Xujiahui ~23.9°C, Baoshan ~23.4°C) and broader network readings cluster tightly around 22–24°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate northerly winds, and dew points near 19–21°C that limited further radiative cooling overnight. Shanghai Meteorological Bureau forecasts and GFS/ECMWF consensus aligned on this narrow range, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky intensification expected. The market-implied odds treat the daily minimum—typically resolved from verified station networks—as effectively locked at 23°C.
A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted late-night drop below 22°C at the primary resolution station or a post-hoc measurement revision, though current conditions and timing make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$16,744結束日期
2026-09-09市場開放時間
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Trader consensus at 100% for a 23°C low reflects converging official observations and model guidance confirming Shanghai's minimum temperature on September 9, 2026, reached or settled at that threshold.** Real-time station data from central districts (e.g., Xujiahui ~23.9°C, Baoshan ~23.4°C) and broader network readings cluster tightly around 22–24°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate northerly winds, and dew points near 19–21°C that limited further radiative cooling overnight. Shanghai Meteorological Bureau forecasts and GFS/ECMWF consensus aligned on this narrow range, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky intensification expected. The market-implied odds treat the daily minimum—typically resolved from verified station networks—as effectively locked at 23°C. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted late-night drop below 22°C at the primary resolution station or a post-hoc measurement revision, though current conditions and timing make such shifts improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions