**Trader consensus on Shenzhen’s September 5 lowest temperature centers on 26–27 °C (combined ~100 % implied probability), reflecting model consensus and recent observations.** Official and ensemble forecasts from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and global models show overnight lows stabilizing near 26 °C under partly cloudy skies, light variable winds, and high humidity (70–90 %). These conditions limit radiative cooling, keeping minimums above the seasonal climatological baseline of ~24–25 °C for early September. Hourly station data through the early morning of the 5th recorded temperatures holding at 26–27 °C, with no evidence of a stronger nocturnal drop. Persistent moisture and scattered showers further moderate the diurnal range, reducing the chance of readings at or below 25 °C. Market-implied odds align closely with this evidence-based range while assigning negligible probability to warmer or substantially cooler outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月5日深圳最低溫度？
9月5日深圳最低溫度？
24°C 10%
22°C 6%
23°C 6%
21°C或以下 2%
最新
最新
2026-09-05
21°C或以下
2%
22°C
6%
23°C
6%
24°C
10%
25°C
1%
26°C
34%
27°C
66%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C或更高
<1%
24°C 10%
22°C 6%
23°C 6%
21°C或以下 2%
最新
最新
2026-09-05
21°C或以下
$22 交易量
2%
22°C
$12 交易量
6%
23°C
$12 交易量
6%
24°C
$152 交易量
10%
25°C
$116 交易量
1%
26°C
$106 交易量
34%
27°C
$232 交易量
66%
28°C
$1,125 交易量
<1%
29°C
$1,101 交易量
<1%
30°C
$591 交易量
<1%
31°C或更高
$45 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Shenzhen’s September 5 lowest temperature centers on 26–27 °C (combined ~100 % implied probability), reflecting model consensus and recent observations.**
Official and ensemble forecasts from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and global models show overnight lows stabilizing near 26 °C under partly cloudy skies, light variable winds, and high humidity (70–90 %). These conditions limit radiative cooling, keeping minimums above the seasonal climatological baseline of ~24–25 °C for early September. Hourly station data through the early morning of the 5th recorded temperatures holding at 26–27 °C, with no evidence of a stronger nocturnal drop. Persistent moisture and scattered showers further moderate the diurnal range, reducing the chance of readings at or below 25 °C. Market-implied odds align closely with this evidence-based range while assigning negligible probability to warmer or substantially cooler outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$3,514結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Shenzhen’s September 5 lowest temperature centers on 26–27 °C (combined ~100 % implied probability), reflecting model consensus and recent observations.**
Official and ensemble forecasts from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and global models show overnight lows stabilizing near 26 °C under partly cloudy skies, light variable winds, and high humidity (70–90 %). These conditions limit radiative cooling, keeping minimums above the seasonal climatological baseline of ~24–25 °C for early September. Hourly station data through the early morning of the 5th recorded temperatures holding at 26–27 °C, with no evidence of a stronger nocturnal drop. Persistent moisture and scattered showers further moderate the diurnal range, reducing the chance of readings at or below 25 °C. Market-implied odds align closely with this evidence-based range while assigning negligible probability to warmer or substantially cooler outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,514結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Trader consensus on Shenzhen’s September 5 lowest temperature centers on 26–27 °C (combined ~100 % implied probability), reflecting model consensus and recent observations.** Official and ensemble forecasts from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and global models show overnight lows stabilizing near 26 °C under partly cloudy skies, light variable winds, and high humidity (70–90 %). These conditions limit radiative cooling, keeping minimums above the seasonal climatological baseline of ~24–25 °C for early September. Hourly station data through the early morning of the 5th recorded temperatures holding at 26–27 °C, with no evidence of a stronger nocturnal drop. Persistent moisture and scattered showers further moderate the diurnal range, reducing the chance of readings at or below 25 °C. Market-implied odds align closely with this evidence-based range while assigning negligible probability to warmer or substantially cooler outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions