Lula's July statements that he would avoid debates "to hear nonsense" and only participate in high-level formats set the baseline for trader expectations, reinforced by his confirmed absence from the August 23 Band debate alongside frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro. As the polling leader in a polarized contest ahead of the October 4 first round, Lula's campaign has prioritized controlled media appearances over multi-candidate events where he could face concentrated attacks from right-leaning rivals. Flávio has signaled he will mirror Lula's participation, while remaining debates on September 14, 27, and October 1 carry uncertainty over format, invitees, and scheduling. This combination of explicit reluctance, strategic calculus, and the first-round timeline underpins the 64.5% implied probability that Lula will not debate before voting.