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政治·巴西

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

icon for São Paulo Governor Election Winner
政治·巴西

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

Tarcísio de Freitas 82%

金·卡塔古里 10.2%

Fernando Haddad 8.5%

Erika Hilton 1.9%

Polymarket

$26,317 交易量

Tarcísio de Freitas 82%

金·卡塔古里 10.2%

Fernando Haddad 8.5%

Erika Hilton 1.9%

Polymarket

$26,317 交易量

icon for Tarcísio de Freitas

Tarcísio de Freitas

$11,929 交易量

82%

icon for 金·卡塔古里

金·卡塔古里

$4,186 交易量

10%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$3,970 交易量

9%

icon for Erika Hilton

Erika Hilton

$3,589 交易量

2%

icon for Márcio França

Márcio França

$2,644 交易量

1%

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds an overwhelming lead in trader consensus for the São Paulo gubernatorial contest due to consistent polling advantages as the incumbent, with recent surveys from Datafolha and Genial/Quaest placing him between 38% and 49% against Fernando Haddad’s 26% to 42% range. This positioning reflects his administration’s focus on privatization efforts, high approval ratings, and the launch of the SuperAção SP anti-poverty initiative targeting vulnerable families. Haddad, positioned as the primary opposition contender from the Workers’ Party, trails amid concerns within his coalition over the absence of viable third options that could force a runoff. Lower-probability names such as Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França register minimal support in the same surveys, limiting their perceived paths to victory ahead of the October 2026 vote.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$26,317
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds an overwhelming lead in trader consensus for the São Paulo gubernatorial contest due to consistent polling advantages as the incumbent, with recent surveys from Datafolha and Genial/Quaest placing him between 38% and 49% against Fernando Haddad’s 26% to 42% range. This positioning reflects his administration’s focus on privatization efforts, high approval ratings, and the launch of the SuperAção SP anti-poverty initiative targeting vulnerable families. Haddad, positioned as the primary opposition contender from the Workers’ Party, trails amid concerns within his coalition over the absence of viable third options that could force a runoff. Lower-probability names such as Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França register minimal support in the same surveys, limiting their perceived paths to victory ahead of the October 2026 vote.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$26,317
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"São Paulo Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tarcísio de Freitas" at 82%, followed by "金·卡塔古里" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "São Paulo Governor Election Winner" has generated $26.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "São Paulo Governor Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "São Paulo Governor Election Winner" is "Tarcísio de Freitas" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "金·卡塔古里" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "São Paulo Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.