Recent polling aggregates and seat models for Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election show the Parti Québécois holding a narrow popular-vote lead near 29 percent, concentrated among francophone voters, while the Coalition Avenir Québec has climbed to roughly 24 percent and the Liberals sit near 22 percent. These figures translate into PQ projections of 44–49 seats on average—short of the 64-seat majority threshold—with simulations assigning the party only a low-single-digit to low-double-digit probability of securing a majority. The multi-party fragmentation of the federalist vote, combined with persistently high undecided shares and regional three-way contests, continues to cap PQ seat totals. Recent campaign movement, including CAQ gains among francophones and Liberal erosion, has further reduced the likelihood of any single party reaching a majority government.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於30% 機率
最新
最新
2026-10-05
30% 機率
最新
最新
2026-10-05
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates and seat models for Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election show the Parti Québécois holding a narrow popular-vote lead near 29 percent, concentrated among francophone voters, while the Coalition Avenir Québec has climbed to roughly 24 percent and the Liberals sit near 22 percent. These figures translate into PQ projections of 44–49 seats on average—short of the 64-seat majority threshold—with simulations assigning the party only a low-single-digit to low-double-digit probability of securing a majority. The multi-party fragmentation of the federalist vote, combined with persistently high undecided shares and regional three-way contests, continues to cap PQ seat totals. Recent campaign movement, including CAQ gains among francophones and Liberal erosion, has further reduced the likelihood of any single party reaching a majority government.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
交易量
$880結束日期
2026-10-05市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates and seat models for Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election show the Parti Québécois holding a narrow popular-vote lead near 29 percent, concentrated among francophone voters, while the Coalition Avenir Québec has climbed to roughly 24 percent and the Liberals sit near 22 percent. These figures translate into PQ projections of 44–49 seats on average—short of the 64-seat majority threshold—with simulations assigning the party only a low-single-digit to low-double-digit probability of securing a majority. The multi-party fragmentation of the federalist vote, combined with persistently high undecided shares and regional three-way contests, continues to cap PQ seat totals. Recent campaign movement, including CAQ gains among francophones and Liberal erosion, has further reduced the likelihood of any single party reaching a majority government.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$880結束日期
2026-10-05市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETRecent polling aggregates and seat models for Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election show the Parti Québécois holding a narrow popular-vote lead near 29 percent, concentrated among francophone voters, while the Coalition Avenir Québec has climbed to roughly 24 percent and the Liberals sit near 22 percent. These figures translate into PQ projections of 44–49 seats on average—short of the 64-seat majority threshold—with simulations assigning the party only a low-single-digit to low-double-digit probability of securing a majority. The multi-party fragmentation of the federalist vote, combined with persistently high undecided shares and regional three-way contests, continues to cap PQ seat totals. Recent campaign movement, including CAQ gains among francophones and Liberal erosion, has further reduced the likelihood of any single party reaching a majority government.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions