Ciro Gomes (PSDB) holds the lead in trader pricing for the Ceará governorship due to consistent polling advantages in the closing weeks before the October 4 first round. Multiple September surveys, including Datafolha (47% Ciro to 40% Elmano) and Paraná Pesquisas (47.4% to 39.9%), show the former governor ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT), though margins have narrowed from double-digit gaps earlier in the campaign. Ciro benefits from high name recognition after prior terms as governor and minister, while Elmano’s support has grown modestly amid approval ratings near 59% in some samples. Minor candidates remain under 2%, and second-round simulations favor Ciro by similar edges. Lula’s planned campaign visit for Elmano represents the main near-term variable that could influence late shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Ciro Gomes 57%
Elmano de Freitas 42%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Capitão Wagner <1%
$250,052 交易量
$250,052 交易量
2026-10-04
Ciro Gomes
57%
Elmano de Freitas
42%
Eduardo Girão
<1%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
<1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
<1%
Ciro Gomes 57%
Elmano de Freitas 42%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Capitão Wagner <1%
$250,052 交易量
$250,052 交易量
2026-10-04
Ciro Gomes
$116,491 交易量
57%
Elmano de Freitas
$62,682 交易量
42%
Eduardo Girão
$18,393 交易量
<1%
Capitão Wagner
$18,039 交易量
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
$18,024 交易量
<1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$16,424 交易量
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes (PSDB) holds the lead in trader pricing for the Ceará governorship due to consistent polling advantages in the closing weeks before the October 4 first round. Multiple September surveys, including Datafolha (47% Ciro to 40% Elmano) and Paraná Pesquisas (47.4% to 39.9%), show the former governor ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT), though margins have narrowed from double-digit gaps earlier in the campaign. Ciro benefits from high name recognition after prior terms as governor and minister, while Elmano’s support has grown modestly amid approval ratings near 59% in some samples. Minor candidates remain under 2%, and second-round simulations favor Ciro by similar edges. Lula’s planned campaign visit for Elmano represents the main near-term variable that could influence late shifts.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
交易量
$250,052结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETThe Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes (PSDB) holds the lead in trader pricing for the Ceará governorship due to consistent polling advantages in the closing weeks before the October 4 first round. Multiple September surveys, including Datafolha (47% Ciro to 40% Elmano) and Paraná Pesquisas (47.4% to 39.9%), show the former governor ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT), though margins have narrowed from double-digit gaps earlier in the campaign. Ciro benefits from high name recognition after prior terms as governor and minister, while Elmano’s support has grown modestly amid approval ratings near 59% in some samples. Minor candidates remain under 2%, and second-round simulations favor Ciro by similar edges. Lula’s planned campaign visit for Elmano represents the main near-term variable that could influence late shifts.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$250,052结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETCiro Gomes (PSDB) holds the lead in trader pricing for the Ceará governorship due to consistent polling advantages in the closing weeks before the October 4 first round. Multiple September surveys, including Datafolha (47% Ciro to 40% Elmano) and Paraná Pesquisas (47.4% to 39.9%), show the former governor ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT), though margins have narrowed from double-digit gaps earlier in the campaign. Ciro benefits from high name recognition after prior terms as governor and minister, while Elmano’s support has grown modestly amid approval ratings near 59% in some samples. Minor candidates remain under 2%, and second-round simulations favor Ciro by similar edges. Lula’s planned campaign visit for Elmano represents the main near-term variable that could influence late shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题