The closely contested first round of Colombia's May 31 presidential election centers on Iván Cepeda's lead as the Historic Pact candidate continuing the current administration's platform, while Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia battle for second place in a fragmented field. Recent polling averages place Cepeda in the mid-to-high 30s, with his two main rivals clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, producing the narrow margins that align with current trader pricing around a 10-15 point gap. Persistent polarization over security policy, armed-group influence in rural areas, and competing right-wing appeals have kept the second-place contest tight, limiting any decisive separation. Late-campaign events such as candidate debates, regional turnout variations, or consolidation among conservative voters could still widen or narrow the spread before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Cepeda Castro 10-15% 38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 32%
de la Espriella Win 15%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 10.1%
$14,918 交易量
$14,918 交易量
2026-05-31
Cepeda Castro 20%+
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
32%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
10%
de la Espriella Win
15%
Valencia Win
1%
Other
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 32%
de la Espriella Win 15%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 10.1%
$14,918 交易量
$14,918 交易量
2026-05-31
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$1,798 交易量
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$1,213 交易量
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$1,102 交易量
38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$1,116 交易量
32%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$1,252 交易量
10%
de la Espriella Win
$4,100 交易量
15%
Valencia Win
$2,270 交易量
1%
Other
$2,066 交易量
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The closely contested first round of Colombia's May 31 presidential election centers on Iván Cepeda's lead as the Historic Pact candidate continuing the current administration's platform, while Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia battle for second place in a fragmented field. Recent polling averages place Cepeda in the mid-to-high 30s, with his two main rivals clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, producing the narrow margins that align with current trader pricing around a 10-15 point gap. Persistent polarization over security policy, armed-group influence in rural areas, and competing right-wing appeals have kept the second-place contest tight, limiting any decisive separation. Late-campaign events such as candidate debates, regional turnout variations, or consolidation among conservative voters could still widen or narrow the spread before election day.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$14,918结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The closely contested first round of Colombia's May 31 presidential election centers on Iván Cepeda's lead as the Historic Pact candidate continuing the current administration's platform, while Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia battle for second place in a fragmented field. Recent polling averages place Cepeda in the mid-to-high 30s, with his two main rivals clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, producing the narrow margins that align with current trader pricing around a 10-15 point gap. Persistent polarization over security policy, armed-group influence in rural areas, and competing right-wing appeals have kept the second-place contest tight, limiting any decisive separation. Late-campaign events such as candidate debates, regional turnout variations, or consolidation among conservative voters could still widen or narrow the spread before election day.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$14,918结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely contested first round of Colombia's May 31 presidential election centers on Iván Cepeda's lead as the Historic Pact candidate continuing the current administration's platform, while Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia battle for second place in a fragmented field. Recent polling averages place Cepeda in the mid-to-high 30s, with his two main rivals clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, producing the narrow margins that align with current trader pricing around a 10-15 point gap. Persistent polarization over security policy, armed-group influence in rural areas, and competing right-wing appeals have kept the second-place contest tight, limiting any decisive separation. Late-campaign events such as candidate debates, regional turnout variations, or consolidation among conservative voters could still widen or narrow the spread before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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