Recent July CPI data showing a 0.1% headline and 0.2% core monthly increase has anchored trader expectations for the July Core PCE MoM release scheduled August 26, positioning the 0.2% outcome at 54.5% implied probability as the consensus view. This follows June’s softer-than-expected 0.1% Core PCE print and reflects typical pass-through from CPI components into the Fed’s preferred gauge, with shelter and services prices providing the main upward pressure. The 0.3% bucket at 28.0% captures residual upside risks from goods prices or revisions, while lower outcomes remain discounted given the data trajectory. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these near-term inflation dynamics ahead of the next FOMC meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0.2% 55%
0.3% 28%
0.1% 12.1%
0.4%+ 3.5%
$29,703 交易量
$29,703 交易量
2026-08-26
≤-0.2%
<1%
-0.1%
<1%
0.0%
<1%
0.1%
12%
0.2%
55%
0.3%
28%
0.4%+
4%
0.2% 55%
0.3% 28%
0.1% 12.1%
0.4%+ 3.5%
$29,703 交易量
$29,703 交易量
2026-08-26
≤-0.2%
$606 交易量
<1%
-0.1%
$830 交易量
<1%
0.0%
$980 交易量
<1%
0.1%
$2,886 交易量
12%
0.2%
$3,971 交易量
55%
0.3%
$17,364 交易量
28%
0.4%+
$3,067 交易量
4%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data showing a 0.1% headline and 0.2% core monthly increase has anchored trader expectations for the July Core PCE MoM release scheduled August 26, positioning the 0.2% outcome at 54.5% implied probability as the consensus view. This follows June’s softer-than-expected 0.1% Core PCE print and reflects typical pass-through from CPI components into the Fed’s preferred gauge, with shelter and services prices providing the main upward pressure. The 0.3% bucket at 28.0% captures residual upside risks from goods prices or revisions, while lower outcomes remain discounted given the data trajectory. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these near-term inflation dynamics ahead of the next FOMC meeting.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$29,703结束日期
2026-08-26市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data showing a 0.1% headline and 0.2% core monthly increase has anchored trader expectations for the July Core PCE MoM release scheduled August 26, positioning the 0.2% outcome at 54.5% implied probability as the consensus view. This follows June’s softer-than-expected 0.1% Core PCE print and reflects typical pass-through from CPI components into the Fed’s preferred gauge, with shelter and services prices providing the main upward pressure. The 0.3% bucket at 28.0% captures residual upside risks from goods prices or revisions, while lower outcomes remain discounted given the data trajectory. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these near-term inflation dynamics ahead of the next FOMC meeting.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
交易量
$29,703结束日期
2026-08-26市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing a 0.1% headline and 0.2% core monthly increase has anchored trader expectations for the July Core PCE MoM release scheduled August 26, positioning the 0.2% outcome at 54.5% implied probability as the consensus view. This follows June’s softer-than-expected 0.1% Core PCE print and reflects typical pass-through from CPI components into the Fed’s preferred gauge, with shelter and services prices providing the main upward pressure. The 0.3% bucket at 28.0% captures residual upside risks from goods prices or revisions, while lower outcomes remain discounted given the data trajectory. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these near-term inflation dynamics ahead of the next FOMC meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题