Recent polling shows Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan holding a narrow first-preference lead in the Dublin Central by-election scheduled for 22 May, yet traders assign Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats the clearest path to victory through favorable transfers under the single transferable vote system. Ennis benefits from the constituency’s left-leaning profile established in the 2024 general election and from endorsements within progressive circles that position him ahead of eliminated candidates. Gerry Hutch’s independent challenge registers modest support but faces structural barriers tied to his public profile. Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam trails further amid broader government-party weakness in the constituency, while smaller candidates remain marginal. The outcome hinges on how second- and third-preference flows consolidate in the final counts.