Short-term forecast uncertainty from National Weather Service and NOAA models drives the near-even split between the 100-101°F and 102-103°F outcomes at 39.5% each implied probability. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in maximum temperatures for Austin due to variable afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and subtle differences in 500-hPa heights under a ridge. Historical climatology places typical mid-August highs near 97°F, yet recent warm advection supports readings several degrees above average. Traders weigh the latest model runs and observed trends, with resolution hinging on the official highest recorded temperature at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月19日奥斯汀的最高温度？
8月19日奥斯汀的最高温度？
102-103°F 43%
100-101°F 39%
98-99°F 11%
104-105°F 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-19
93华氏度或以下
1%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
3%
98-99°F
11%
100-101°F
39%
102-103°F
44%
104-105°F
8%
106-107°F
4%
108-109°F
2%
110-111°F
4%
华氏112度或更高
1%
102-103°F 43%
100-101°F 39%
98-99°F 11%
104-105°F 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-19
93华氏度或以下
$80 交易量
1%
94-95°F
$45 交易量
1%
96-97°F
$6 交易量
3%
98-99°F
$3 交易量
11%
100-101°F
$7 交易量
39%
102-103°F
$37 交易量
44%
104-105°F
$42 交易量
8%
106-107°F
$62 交易量
4%
108-109°F
$72 交易量
2%
110-111°F
$45 交易量
4%
华氏112度或更高
$85 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty from National Weather Service and NOAA models drives the near-even split between the 100-101°F and 102-103°F outcomes at 39.5% each implied probability. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in maximum temperatures for Austin due to variable afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and subtle differences in 500-hPa heights under a ridge. Historical climatology places typical mid-August highs near 97°F, yet recent warm advection supports readings several degrees above average. Traders weigh the latest model runs and observed trends, with resolution hinging on the official highest recorded temperature at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
交易量
$485结束日期
2026-08-19市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty from National Weather Service and NOAA models drives the near-even split between the 100-101°F and 102-103°F outcomes at 39.5% each implied probability. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in maximum temperatures for Austin due to variable afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and subtle differences in 500-hPa heights under a ridge. Historical climatology places typical mid-August highs near 97°F, yet recent warm advection supports readings several degrees above average. Traders weigh the latest model runs and observed trends, with resolution hinging on the official highest recorded temperature at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$485结束日期
2026-08-19市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ETShort-term forecast uncertainty from National Weather Service and NOAA models drives the near-even split between the 100-101°F and 102-103°F outcomes at 39.5% each implied probability. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in maximum temperatures for Austin due to variable afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and subtle differences in 500-hPa heights under a ridge. Historical climatology places typical mid-August highs near 97°F, yet recent warm advection supports readings several degrees above average. Traders weigh the latest model runs and observed trends, with resolution hinging on the official highest recorded temperature at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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