Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on May 15, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 25°C amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with morning lows near 18°C. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where average highs hit 27°C and topographic warmth trapping sustains peaks even under overcast conditions—evidenced by May 14's observed 25°C high in similar weather. Model ensembles from CMA and international sources show tight agreement on limited cooling. Realistic challenges include prolonged heavy precipitation or sudden cool air advection suppressing afternoon heating to 22°C, though upper-level ridge stability makes this unlikely. Hourly observations from Shuangliu Airport station will finalize resolution via official records.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月15日成都气温最高？
5月15日成都气温最高？
23°C或更高 100.0%
13°C或以下 <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$39,695 交易量
$39,695 交易量
2026-05-15
13°C或以下
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C或更高
是
23°C或更高 100.0%
13°C或以下 <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$39,695 交易量
$39,695 交易量
2026-05-15
13°C或以下
$1,206 交易量
否
14°C
$1,150 交易量
否
15°C
$1,339 交易量
否
16°C
$1,244 交易量
否
17°C
$1,145 交易量
否
18°C
$1,983 交易量
否
19°C
$2,353 交易量
否
20°C
$4,867 交易量
否
21°C
$6,709 交易量
否
22°C
$10,877 交易量
否
23°C或更高
$6,821 交易量
是
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on May 15, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 25°C amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with morning lows near 18°C. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where average highs hit 27°C and topographic warmth trapping sustains peaks even under overcast conditions—evidenced by May 14's observed 25°C high in similar weather. Model ensembles from CMA and international sources show tight agreement on limited cooling. Realistic challenges include prolonged heavy precipitation or sudden cool air advection suppressing afternoon heating to 22°C, though upper-level ridge stability makes this unlikely. Hourly observations from Shuangliu Airport station will finalize resolution via official records.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
交易量
$39,695结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on May 15, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 25°C amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with morning lows near 18°C. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where average highs hit 27°C and topographic warmth trapping sustains peaks even under overcast conditions—evidenced by May 14's observed 25°C high in similar weather. Model ensembles from CMA and international sources show tight agreement on limited cooling. Realistic challenges include prolonged heavy precipitation or sudden cool air advection suppressing afternoon heating to 22°C, though upper-level ridge stability makes this unlikely. Hourly observations from Shuangliu Airport station will finalize resolution via official records.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$39,695结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on May 15, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 25°C amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with morning lows near 18°C. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where average highs hit 27°C and topographic warmth trapping sustains peaks even under overcast conditions—evidenced by May 14's observed 25°C high in similar weather. Model ensembles from CMA and international sources show tight agreement on limited cooling. Realistic challenges include prolonged heavy precipitation or sudden cool air advection suppressing afternoon heating to 22°C, though upper-level ridge stability makes this unlikely. Hourly observations from Shuangliu Airport station will finalize resolution via official records.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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