Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.9% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or higher in Chengdu on May 15, driven by convergent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting daytime peaks of 26–28°C amid mostly cloudy skies with isolated morning showers. AccuWeather models corroborate this at around 24–26°C (76–78°F), aligning with Chengdu's mid-May climatology—average highs near 27°C on the Saffir-Simpson-irrelevant but observationally robust baseline—and recent days' observed warming trends exceeding 25°C. Stable synoptic patterns, including weak high-pressure ridging aloft, support diurnal heating despite partial cloudiness. Realistic challenges include prolonged showers curtailing solar insolation or a sudden cold-air advection from northern fronts, with resolution hinging on official measurements at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport and final forecast updates overnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月15日成都气温最高？
5月15日成都气温最高？
23°C或更高 97.0%
22°C 2.7%
21°C <1%
最新
$25,385 交易量
最新
$25,385 交易量
2026-05-15
21°C
1%
22°C
3%
23°C或更高
97%
23°C或更高 97.0%
22°C 2.7%
21°C <1%
最新
$25,385 交易量
最新
$25,385 交易量
2026-05-15
21°C
$3,478 交易量
1%
22°C
$4,056 交易量
3%
23°C或更高
$2,771 交易量
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.9% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or higher in Chengdu on May 15, driven by convergent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting daytime peaks of 26–28°C amid mostly cloudy skies with isolated morning showers. AccuWeather models corroborate this at around 24–26°C (76–78°F), aligning with Chengdu's mid-May climatology—average highs near 27°C on the Saffir-Simpson-irrelevant but observationally robust baseline—and recent days' observed warming trends exceeding 25°C. Stable synoptic patterns, including weak high-pressure ridging aloft, support diurnal heating despite partial cloudiness. Realistic challenges include prolonged showers curtailing solar insolation or a sudden cold-air advection from northern fronts, with resolution hinging on official measurements at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport and final forecast updates overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
交易量
$25,385结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.9% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or higher in Chengdu on May 15, driven by convergent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting daytime peaks of 26–28°C amid mostly cloudy skies with isolated morning showers. AccuWeather models corroborate this at around 24–26°C (76–78°F), aligning with Chengdu's mid-May climatology—average highs near 27°C on the Saffir-Simpson-irrelevant but observationally robust baseline—and recent days' observed warming trends exceeding 25°C. Stable synoptic patterns, including weak high-pressure ridging aloft, support diurnal heating despite partial cloudiness. Realistic challenges include prolonged showers curtailing solar insolation or a sudden cold-air advection from northern fronts, with resolution hinging on official measurements at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport and final forecast updates overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$25,385结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.9% implied probability to a high temperature of 23°C or higher in Chengdu on May 15, driven by convergent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting daytime peaks of 26–28°C amid mostly cloudy skies with isolated morning showers. AccuWeather models corroborate this at around 24–26°C (76–78°F), aligning with Chengdu's mid-May climatology—average highs near 27°C on the Saffir-Simpson-irrelevant but observationally robust baseline—and recent days' observed warming trends exceeding 25°C. Stable synoptic patterns, including weak high-pressure ridging aloft, support diurnal heating despite partial cloudiness. Realistic challenges include prolonged showers curtailing solar insolation or a sudden cold-air advection from northern fronts, with resolution hinging on official measurements at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport and final forecast updates overnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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