Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 22°C (47.5% implied probability) and 23°C (37.5%), reflecting ensemble forecast means from ECMWF and GFS models centering around 22°C for Madrid-Barajas Airport, despite AEMET's more conservative daily maximum of 20°C under clearing skies and westerly winds at 20 km/h. This positioning stems from a rebound after a cool spell—18.4°C maximum at Retiro station on May 12 and 19°C forecast for May 13—driven by northerly flows and partial cloud cover that suppressed diurnal heating. Mid-May climatology averages 22°C highs, with model spreads of 20–24°C capturing uncertainty from variable boundary layer mixing and frontal remnants from a recent cold air mass. Watch hourly observations and evening AEMET updates, as sustained sunshine could push toward 23–24°C.