Recent forecasts from European meteorological models position 22°C as the leading outcome for Madrid’s daily high, consistent with its 48% market-implied probability. Ensemble runs show a tight cluster between 21–23°C driven by a stable high-pressure ridge, light winds, and limited daytime heating under mostly clear skies. This scientific consensus accounts for the combined 89% probability on those three bins, while lower odds on extremes reflect the narrow uncertainty range typical for same-day temperature predictions. Traders are watching final AEMET station readings this afternoon, as small shifts in observed maximum could resolve the market toward adjacent values.