Recent Météo-France and ensemble model guidance shows Paris reaching a daily maximum of 31°C on August 15 under partly cloudy conditions with limited afternoon convection, following a brief cool-down after midweek heat. Numerical weather prediction runs maintain strong consensus around this value, consistent with observed surface temperatures and boundary-layer conditions. The 99.5% market-implied probability on 31°C reflects traders’ assessment of low forecast uncertainty given the proximity to resolution and minimal model spread. A modest shift in steering flow or localized thunderstorm development could still produce a 30°C or 32°C outcome, though current observations make either outcome unlikely before the day ends.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月15日巴黎气温最高？
8月15日巴黎气温最高？
31°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$215,019 交易量
$215,019 交易量
2026-08-15
30°C or below
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$215,019 交易量
$215,019 交易量
2026-08-15
30°C or below
$61,058 交易量
No
31°C
$39,075 交易量
Yes
32°C
$34,856 交易量
No
33°C
$26,289 交易量
No
34°C
$21,756 交易量
No
35°C
$16,593 交易量
No
36°C
$8,878 交易量
No
37°C
$3,903 交易量
No
38°C
$990 交易量
No
39°C
$1,141 交易量
No
40°C or higher
$479 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and ensemble model guidance shows Paris reaching a daily maximum of 31°C on August 15 under partly cloudy conditions with limited afternoon convection, following a brief cool-down after midweek heat. Numerical weather prediction runs maintain strong consensus around this value, consistent with observed surface temperatures and boundary-layer conditions. The 99.5% market-implied probability on 31°C reflects traders’ assessment of low forecast uncertainty given the proximity to resolution and minimal model spread. A modest shift in steering flow or localized thunderstorm development could still produce a 30°C or 32°C outcome, though current observations make either outcome unlikely before the day ends.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
交易量
$215,019结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and ensemble model guidance shows Paris reaching a daily maximum of 31°C on August 15 under partly cloudy conditions with limited afternoon convection, following a brief cool-down after midweek heat. Numerical weather prediction runs maintain strong consensus around this value, consistent with observed surface temperatures and boundary-layer conditions. The 99.5% market-implied probability on 31°C reflects traders’ assessment of low forecast uncertainty given the proximity to resolution and minimal model spread. A modest shift in steering flow or localized thunderstorm development could still produce a 30°C or 32°C outcome, though current observations make either outcome unlikely before the day ends.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$215,019结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Recent Météo-France and ensemble model guidance shows Paris reaching a daily maximum of 31°C on August 15 under partly cloudy conditions with limited afternoon convection, following a brief cool-down after midweek heat. Numerical weather prediction runs maintain strong consensus around this value, consistent with observed surface temperatures and boundary-layer conditions. The 99.5% market-implied probability on 31°C reflects traders’ assessment of low forecast uncertainty given the proximity to resolution and minimal model spread. A modest shift in steering flow or localized thunderstorm development could still produce a 30°C or 32°C outcome, though current observations make either outcome unlikely before the day ends.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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