Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a modest warming trend for coastal San Francisco on August 6, with consensus high temperatures centered in the low-to-mid 70s under building high pressure. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 70–75°F reflects uncertainty in marine-layer depth and onshore flow strength; a deeper, more persistent marine layer or stronger sea breeze would cap readings near 70–71°F, while reduced stratus and lighter winds could allow 74–75°F. These outcomes align with typical early-August climatology, where average highs hover near 69–72°F, modulated by the position of the thermal trough and 850-hPa temperatures. New model cycles and afternoon observations will refine the marine inversion and boundary-layer mixing that ultimately determine the daily maximum.