Persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall tied to the East Asian monsoon are suppressing solar heating and capping daytime maxima in Shenzhen, driving the market-implied 33.5% odds on a 31°C high for August 31. Multiple forecasts converge on 29–32°C under mostly cloudy to rainy conditions with 50–80% precipitation chances, well below the ~32°C August climatology. Key variables include rainfall intensity and timing, which reduce insolation and enhance evaporative cooling; northeast steering winds; and model spread on exact cloud cover. High market dispersion reflects genuine forecast uncertainty, with new CMA or NMC guidance likely to refine probabilities before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月31日深圳气温最高？
8月31日深圳气温最高？
31°C 34%
30°C 22%
32°C 22%
29°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
9%
29°C
16%
30°C
22%
31°C
34%
32°C
22%
33°C
4%
34°C or higher
1%
31°C 34%
30°C 22%
32°C 22%
29°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
24°C or below
$192 交易量
<1%
25°C
$140 交易量
<1%
26°C
$140 交易量
<1%
27°C
$0 交易量
1%
28°C
$25 交易量
9%
29°C
$35 交易量
16%
30°C
$12 交易量
22%
31°C
$20 交易量
34%
32°C
$30 交易量
22%
33°C
$248 交易量
4%
34°C or higher
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall tied to the East Asian monsoon are suppressing solar heating and capping daytime maxima in Shenzhen, driving the market-implied 33.5% odds on a 31°C high for August 31. Multiple forecasts converge on 29–32°C under mostly cloudy to rainy conditions with 50–80% precipitation chances, well below the ~32°C August climatology. Key variables include rainfall intensity and timing, which reduce insolation and enhance evaporative cooling; northeast steering winds; and model spread on exact cloud cover. High market dispersion reflects genuine forecast uncertainty, with new CMA or NMC guidance likely to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$842结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall tied to the East Asian monsoon are suppressing solar heating and capping daytime maxima in Shenzhen, driving the market-implied 33.5% odds on a 31°C high for August 31. Multiple forecasts converge on 29–32°C under mostly cloudy to rainy conditions with 50–80% precipitation chances, well below the ~32°C August climatology. Key variables include rainfall intensity and timing, which reduce insolation and enhance evaporative cooling; northeast steering winds; and model spread on exact cloud cover. High market dispersion reflects genuine forecast uncertainty, with new CMA or NMC guidance likely to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$842结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETPersistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall tied to the East Asian monsoon are suppressing solar heating and capping daytime maxima in Shenzhen, driving the market-implied 33.5% odds on a 31°C high for August 31. Multiple forecasts converge on 29–32°C under mostly cloudy to rainy conditions with 50–80% precipitation chances, well below the ~32°C August climatology. Key variables include rainfall intensity and timing, which reduce insolation and enhance evaporative cooling; northeast steering winds; and model spread on exact cloud cover. High market dispersion reflects genuine forecast uncertainty, with new CMA or NMC guidance likely to refine probabilities before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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