The 10-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.96% after touching 5.04% in mid-September 2026, has climbed roughly 80 basis points year-to-date amid resilient U.S. growth, core inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, and a hawkish policy shift. The Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75–4.00% funds rate range, combined with market pricing for additional tightening by year-end, has lifted both policy-rate expectations and the term premium. Heavy Treasury issuance, corporate borrowing tied to AI infrastructure, and geopolitical risks supporting oil prices have further pressured longer-term yields higher. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and labor-market releases plus the next FOMC meeting, which will shape whether yields test levels above 5% before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2027年之前， 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高？
2027年之前， 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高？
$535,269 交易量
2026-12-30
5.1%
73%
5.2%
38%
5.5%
14%
5.7%
6%
6.0%
5%
$535,269 交易量
5.1%
$16,138 交易量
73%
5.2%
$105,498 交易量
38%
5.5%
$55,684 交易量
14%
5.7%
$22,616 交易量
6%
6.0%
$14,234 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.96% after touching 5.04% in mid-September 2026, has climbed roughly 80 basis points year-to-date amid resilient U.S. growth, core inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, and a hawkish policy shift. The Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75–4.00% funds rate range, combined with market pricing for additional tightening by year-end, has lifted both policy-rate expectations and the term premium. Heavy Treasury issuance, corporate borrowing tied to AI infrastructure, and geopolitical risks supporting oil prices have further pressured longer-term yields higher. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and labor-market releases plus the next FOMC meeting, which will shape whether yields test levels above 5% before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
交易量
$535,269结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.96% after touching 5.04% in mid-September 2026, has climbed roughly 80 basis points year-to-date amid resilient U.S. growth, core inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, and a hawkish policy shift. The Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75–4.00% funds rate range, combined with market pricing for additional tightening by year-end, has lifted both policy-rate expectations and the term premium. Heavy Treasury issuance, corporate borrowing tied to AI infrastructure, and geopolitical risks supporting oil prices have further pressured longer-term yields higher. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and labor-market releases plus the next FOMC meeting, which will shape whether yields test levels above 5% before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$535,269结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
The 10-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.96% after touching 5.04% in mid-September 2026, has climbed roughly 80 basis points year-to-date amid resilient U.S. growth, core inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, and a hawkish policy shift. The Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75–4.00% funds rate range, combined with market pricing for additional tightening by year-end, has lifted both policy-rate expectations and the term premium. Heavy Treasury issuance, corporate borrowing tied to AI infrastructure, and geopolitical risks supporting oil prices have further pressured longer-term yields higher. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and labor-market releases plus the next FOMC meeting, which will shape whether yields test levels above 5% before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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