Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, driven by the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, remain the primary driver behind the 64.5% market-implied probability for 20-39 weekly transits. Heightened security risks, Iranian restrictions on vessel movements, and intermittent attacks have kept daily commercial passages in the low single digits to low teens, well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 120-140 vessels per day. Recent U.S. efforts such as the paused Project Freedom escort initiative and continued naval presence have produced only marginal increases in traffic, with data through mid-May showing persistent congestion of over 1,500 stranded vessels. Traders price in this constrained environment as the dominant factor shaping near-term resolution probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于20-39 64%
40-59 26%
60-79 5.0%
<20 3.1%
$80,326 交易量
$80,326 交易量
2026-05-17
<20
3%
20-39
64%
40-59
26%
60-79
5%
80+
2%
20-39 64%
40-59 26%
60-79 5.0%
<20 3.1%
$80,326 交易量
$80,326 交易量
2026-05-17
<20
$28,367 交易量
3%
20-39
$13,468 交易量
64%
40-59
$14,627 交易量
26%
60-79
$12,115 交易量
5%
80+
$11,750 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, driven by the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, remain the primary driver behind the 64.5% market-implied probability for 20-39 weekly transits. Heightened security risks, Iranian restrictions on vessel movements, and intermittent attacks have kept daily commercial passages in the low single digits to low teens, well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 120-140 vessels per day. Recent U.S. efforts such as the paused Project Freedom escort initiative and continued naval presence have produced only marginal increases in traffic, with data through mid-May showing persistent congestion of over 1,500 stranded vessels. Traders price in this constrained environment as the dominant factor shaping near-term resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
交易量
$80,326结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, driven by the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, remain the primary driver behind the 64.5% market-implied probability for 20-39 weekly transits. Heightened security risks, Iranian restrictions on vessel movements, and intermittent attacks have kept daily commercial passages in the low single digits to low teens, well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 120-140 vessels per day. Recent U.S. efforts such as the paused Project Freedom escort initiative and continued naval presence have produced only marginal increases in traffic, with data through mid-May showing persistent congestion of over 1,500 stranded vessels. Traders price in this constrained environment as the dominant factor shaping near-term resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$80,326结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, driven by the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, remain the primary driver behind the 64.5% market-implied probability for 20-39 weekly transits. Heightened security risks, Iranian restrictions on vessel movements, and intermittent attacks have kept daily commercial passages in the low single digits to low teens, well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 120-140 vessels per day. Recent U.S. efforts such as the paused Project Freedom escort initiative and continued naval presence have produced only marginal increases in traffic, with data through mid-May showing persistent congestion of over 1,500 stranded vessels. Traders price in this constrained environment as the dominant factor shaping near-term resolution probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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