Ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict continue to constrain maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 61% implied probability on the 20-39 ship outcome. Security risks, including selective passage approvals and naval presence, have kept weekly transits far below the pre-2026 daily average of roughly 130 vessels, with recent data showing 13–17 crossings on individual days in mid-May. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, prices in a modest uptick from earlier near-zero levels due to incremental diplomatic signals and escorted movements, while ruling out sharp rebounds absent broader de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in regional negotiations or naval postures that could alter daily flows before week-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于20-39 61%
40-59 28%
60-79 4.8%
<20 3.6%
$92,993 交易量
$92,993 交易量
2026-05-17
<20
4%
20-39
61%
40-59
28%
60-79
5%
80+
1%
20-39 61%
40-59 28%
60-79 4.8%
<20 3.6%
$92,993 交易量
$92,993 交易量
2026-05-17
<20
$34,492 交易量
4%
20-39
$15,109 交易量
61%
40-59
$17,540 交易量
28%
60-79
$13,099 交易量
5%
80+
$12,752 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict continue to constrain maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 61% implied probability on the 20-39 ship outcome. Security risks, including selective passage approvals and naval presence, have kept weekly transits far below the pre-2026 daily average of roughly 130 vessels, with recent data showing 13–17 crossings on individual days in mid-May. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, prices in a modest uptick from earlier near-zero levels due to incremental diplomatic signals and escorted movements, while ruling out sharp rebounds absent broader de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in regional negotiations or naval postures that could alter daily flows before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
交易量
$92,993结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict continue to constrain maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 61% implied probability on the 20-39 ship outcome. Security risks, including selective passage approvals and naval presence, have kept weekly transits far below the pre-2026 daily average of roughly 130 vessels, with recent data showing 13–17 crossings on individual days in mid-May. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, prices in a modest uptick from earlier near-zero levels due to incremental diplomatic signals and escorted movements, while ruling out sharp rebounds absent broader de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in regional negotiations or naval postures that could alter daily flows before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$92,993结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict continue to constrain maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 61% implied probability on the 20-39 ship outcome. Security risks, including selective passage approvals and naval presence, have kept weekly transits far below the pre-2026 daily average of roughly 130 vessels, with recent data showing 13–17 crossings on individual days in mid-May. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, prices in a modest uptick from earlier near-zero levels due to incremental diplomatic signals and escorted movements, while ruling out sharp rebounds absent broader de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in regional negotiations or naval postures that could alter daily flows before week-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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