Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, center on ending the 2026 conflict that began with joint US-Israel strikes in late February, but face major obstacles to any permanent bilateral peace agreement with Israel. Recent developments include Iran's rejection of demands to dismantle enrichment facilities and remove its uranium stockpile, countered by US warnings that the current ceasefire is on "life support" and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's insistence on full nuclear program restrictions plus limits on missiles and proxies. Talks address the Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, and reconstruction, yet core positions remain far apart with no resolution timeline confirmed. These diplomatic frictions and military posturing continue to shape trader assessments of whether a comprehensive Israel-Iran accord can be reached before key deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$936,702 交易量
2026-05-31
May 31
3%
6月30日
13%
$936,702 交易量
May 31
$281,565 交易量
3%
6月30日
$340,522 交易量
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, center on ending the 2026 conflict that began with joint US-Israel strikes in late February, but face major obstacles to any permanent bilateral peace agreement with Israel. Recent developments include Iran's rejection of demands to dismantle enrichment facilities and remove its uranium stockpile, countered by US warnings that the current ceasefire is on "life support" and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's insistence on full nuclear program restrictions plus limits on missiles and proxies. Talks address the Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, and reconstruction, yet core positions remain far apart with no resolution timeline confirmed. These diplomatic frictions and military posturing continue to shape trader assessments of whether a comprehensive Israel-Iran accord can be reached before key deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
交易量
$936,702结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, center on ending the 2026 conflict that began with joint US-Israel strikes in late February, but face major obstacles to any permanent bilateral peace agreement with Israel. Recent developments include Iran's rejection of demands to dismantle enrichment facilities and remove its uranium stockpile, countered by US warnings that the current ceasefire is on "life support" and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's insistence on full nuclear program restrictions plus limits on missiles and proxies. Talks address the Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, and reconstruction, yet core positions remain far apart with no resolution timeline confirmed. These diplomatic frictions and military posturing continue to shape trader assessments of whether a comprehensive Israel-Iran accord can be reached before key deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$936,702结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, center on ending the 2026 conflict that began with joint US-Israel strikes in late February, but face major obstacles to any permanent bilateral peace agreement with Israel. Recent developments include Iran's rejection of demands to dismantle enrichment facilities and remove its uranium stockpile, countered by US warnings that the current ceasefire is on "life support" and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's insistence on full nuclear program restrictions plus limits on missiles and proxies. Talks address the Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, and reconstruction, yet core positions remain far apart with no resolution timeline confirmed. These diplomatic frictions and military posturing continue to shape trader assessments of whether a comprehensive Israel-Iran accord can be reached before key deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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