Taiwan's constitutional process for presidential impeachment requires a three-quarters supermajority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, a threshold the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party coalition currently lacks despite initiating proceedings in December 2025. The decisive roll-call vote scheduled for May 19 will almost certainly fall short, leaving no procedural path for removal before the June 30 cutoff. Ongoing hearings have highlighted partisan divisions but produced no shift in seat arithmetic or cross-party support. While late-stage defections or procedural delays remain theoretically possible, historical patterns and the slim opposition margin make any reversal before the deadline highly improbable, aligning with the 98 percent trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$618,916 交易量
$618,916 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$618,916 交易量
$618,916 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's constitutional process for presidential impeachment requires a three-quarters supermajority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, a threshold the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party coalition currently lacks despite initiating proceedings in December 2025. The decisive roll-call vote scheduled for May 19 will almost certainly fall short, leaving no procedural path for removal before the June 30 cutoff. Ongoing hearings have highlighted partisan divisions but produced no shift in seat arithmetic or cross-party support. While late-stage defections or procedural delays remain theoretically possible, historical patterns and the slim opposition margin make any reversal before the deadline highly improbable, aligning with the 98 percent trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
交易量
$618,916结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's constitutional process for presidential impeachment requires a three-quarters supermajority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, a threshold the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party coalition currently lacks despite initiating proceedings in December 2025. The decisive roll-call vote scheduled for May 19 will almost certainly fall short, leaving no procedural path for removal before the June 30 cutoff. Ongoing hearings have highlighted partisan divisions but produced no shift in seat arithmetic or cross-party support. While late-stage defections or procedural delays remain theoretically possible, historical patterns and the slim opposition margin make any reversal before the deadline highly improbable, aligning with the 98 percent trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$618,916结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Taiwan's constitutional process for presidential impeachment requires a three-quarters supermajority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, a threshold the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party coalition currently lacks despite initiating proceedings in December 2025. The decisive roll-call vote scheduled for May 19 will almost certainly fall short, leaving no procedural path for removal before the June 30 cutoff. Ongoing hearings have highlighted partisan divisions but produced no shift in seat arithmetic or cross-party support. While late-stage defections or procedural delays remain theoretically possible, historical patterns and the slim opposition margin make any reversal before the deadline highly improbable, aligning with the 98 percent trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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