Current forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on an overnight minimum near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, underpinning the 99.4% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. This alignment reflects typical mid-May subtropical conditions over the Yangtze River Delta, where maritime moderation and urban heat-island effects at Pudong routinely stabilize minimum temperatures within a narrow 17–21°C climatological range. Resolution hinges on official China Meteorological Administration observations at the primary Shanghai station. An unexpected frontal passage or stronger-than-anticipated northerly flow could shift the low to 18°C or below, while a shallower boundary layer or persistent southwesterly return flow might keep readings at or above 20°C—scenarios that remain low-probability given the latest model guidance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月17日上海最低气温？
5月17日上海最低气温？
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
18°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,123 交易量
$11,123 交易量
2026-05-17
14°C或以下
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
99%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C或更高
<1%
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
18°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,123 交易量
$11,123 交易量
2026-05-17
14°C或以下
$776 交易量
<1%
15°C
$626 交易量
<1%
16°C
$563 交易量
<1%
17°C
$934 交易量
<1%
18°C
$901 交易量
1%
19°C
$2,045 交易量
99%
20°C
$2,433 交易量
1%
21°C
$957 交易量
<1%
22°C
$528 交易量
<1%
23°C
$583 交易量
<1%
24°C或更高
$778 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on an overnight minimum near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, underpinning the 99.4% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. This alignment reflects typical mid-May subtropical conditions over the Yangtze River Delta, where maritime moderation and urban heat-island effects at Pudong routinely stabilize minimum temperatures within a narrow 17–21°C climatological range. Resolution hinges on official China Meteorological Administration observations at the primary Shanghai station. An unexpected frontal passage or stronger-than-anticipated northerly flow could shift the low to 18°C or below, while a shallower boundary layer or persistent southwesterly return flow might keep readings at or above 20°C—scenarios that remain low-probability given the latest model guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
交易量
$11,123结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on an overnight minimum near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, underpinning the 99.4% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. This alignment reflects typical mid-May subtropical conditions over the Yangtze River Delta, where maritime moderation and urban heat-island effects at Pudong routinely stabilize minimum temperatures within a narrow 17–21°C climatological range. Resolution hinges on official China Meteorological Administration observations at the primary Shanghai station. An unexpected frontal passage or stronger-than-anticipated northerly flow could shift the low to 18°C or below, while a shallower boundary layer or persistent southwesterly return flow might keep readings at or above 20°C—scenarios that remain low-probability given the latest model guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$11,123结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETCurrent forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on an overnight minimum near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, underpinning the 99.4% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. This alignment reflects typical mid-May subtropical conditions over the Yangtze River Delta, where maritime moderation and urban heat-island effects at Pudong routinely stabilize minimum temperatures within a narrow 17–21°C climatological range. Resolution hinges on official China Meteorological Administration observations at the primary Shanghai station. An unexpected frontal passage or stronger-than-anticipated northerly flow could shift the low to 18°C or below, while a shallower boundary layer or persistent southwesterly return flow might keep readings at or above 20°C—scenarios that remain low-probability given the latest model guidance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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