Traders are pricing a 93.7 percent probability against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026 amid resilient first-quarter data showing a 2.0 percent annualized advance, led by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and software. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and major banks project full-year real GDP expansion of 1.8 to 2.5 percent, supported by fiscal tailwinds from recent legislation and steady private-sector demand that outweighs modest headwinds from tariffs and slower labor-force growth. While elevated inflation readings and potential policy shifts could weigh on consumption, current leading indicators and corporate capital-expenditure trends point to sustained positive momentum through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$26,508 交易量
$26,508 交易量
2027-01-29
是
$26,508 交易量
$26,508 交易量
2027-01-29
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Traders are pricing a 93.7 percent probability against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026 amid resilient first-quarter data showing a 2.0 percent annualized advance, led by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and software. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and major banks project full-year real GDP expansion of 1.8 to 2.5 percent, supported by fiscal tailwinds from recent legislation and steady private-sector demand that outweighs modest headwinds from tariffs and slower labor-force growth. While elevated inflation readings and potential policy shifts could weigh on consumption, current leading indicators and corporate capital-expenditure trends point to sustained positive momentum through year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
交易量
$26,508结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Traders are pricing a 93.7 percent probability against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026 amid resilient first-quarter data showing a 2.0 percent annualized advance, led by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and software. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and major banks project full-year real GDP expansion of 1.8 to 2.5 percent, supported by fiscal tailwinds from recent legislation and steady private-sector demand that outweighs modest headwinds from tariffs and slower labor-force growth. While elevated inflation readings and potential policy shifts could weigh on consumption, current leading indicators and corporate capital-expenditure trends point to sustained positive momentum through year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
交易量
$26,508结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders are pricing a 93.7 percent probability against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026 amid resilient first-quarter data showing a 2.0 percent annualized advance, led by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and software. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and major banks project full-year real GDP expansion of 1.8 to 2.5 percent, supported by fiscal tailwinds from recent legislation and steady private-sector demand that outweighs modest headwinds from tariffs and slower labor-force growth. While elevated inflation readings and potential policy shifts could weigh on consumption, current leading indicators and corporate capital-expenditure trends point to sustained positive momentum through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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