With the 2028 presidential race more than two years out, traders view the contest as wide open, with JD Vance holding a narrow lead at 18.6% implied probability followed closely by Gavin Newsom at 16.7% and Marco Rubio at 13.8%. This tight distribution reflects early positioning after the prior cycle, where potential nominees from both parties have yet to lock in broad support through primaries or conventions. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 stand out as the next major test, likely shaping turnout and voter priorities in swing states that influence national coalitions. Policy shifts, endorsement patterns, and party leadership changes could quickly alter these odds by clarifying paths to nomination before formal campaigning begins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Josh Shapiro’s campaign stalls after New Jersey primary loss
Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%
Shapiro’s unexpected primary defeat reduced his perceived viability, causing his price to fall from 7% to 3% as the market reassessed his chances.
Ron DeSantis gains momentum after policy speech on immigration enforcement
Ron DeSantis rises to 4%2%
Ron DeSantis delivered a high‑profile speech outlining a new immigration enforcement plan, which resonated with his base and lifted his market price from 2% to 4% over the following days.
Ron DeSantis price increases following special session announcement
Ron DeSantis rises to 4%2%
Ron DeSantis's move to call a special legislative session to address redistricting and other policy issues increased his visibility and political influence.
Jon Ossoff gains momentum after Georgia Senate race win
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
Ossoff’s victory in the Georgia Senate race boosted his national profile, raising his market price from 3% to 4% as he emerged as a rising Democratic star.
JD Vance sees price increase following high-profile March for Life speech
JD Vance rises to 21%2%
JD Vance's continued advocacy for pro-family policies and his high-profile role at the March for Life event bolstered his standing among conservative voters.
Marco Rubio’s price rises amid Winter Olympics and speculation
Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%
Marco Rubio’s price increased from 11% to 15% in early May, likely influenced by his role in the US delegation to the Winter Olympics alongside JD Vance and growing speculation about his presidential ambitions.
JD Vance and Jake Paul attend US women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
JD Vance's public appearance with influencer Jake Paul at a US women's hockey game during the Winter Olympics drew media attention, reinforcing his public profile and appeal. This event coincided with a price increase for Vance from 19% to 22%.
Ron DeSantis’ poll numbers dip after Florida tax controversy
Ron DeSantis dips to 4%4%
A controversy over new Florida tax legislation hurt DeSantis’s standing, dropping his price from 8% to 4% as voters expressed concern over economic policy.
Marco Rubio’s market price rises amid increased political activity
Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%
Marco Rubio’s market price increased from 11% to 14%, likely reflecting growing political engagement and endorsements, including his support for JD Vance’s potential presidential bid.
JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey games at Winter Olympics with family and Jake Paul
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
JD Vance's attendance at U.S. women's hockey games at the Winter Olympics, alongside his family and influencer Jake Paul, increased his public profile and engagement with popular culture, contributing to a brief price increase in his market odds.
U.S. delegation led by JD Vance and Marco Rubio to attend 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio rises to 12%3%
The White House announced that Vice President JD Vance will lead an American delegation, joined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to the opening ceremony of the Milan‑Cortina Winter Olympics, boosting Rubio’s visibility ahead of the market’s rise in early May.
Kamala Harris price increases
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
Kamala Harris's market price saw a slight increase, potentially reflecting renewed interest or developments in her political standing as the 2028 cycle approaches.
JD Vance and Marco Rubio lead U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%
JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio attended the opening ceremony of the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics as part of the U.S. delegation, increasing their public visibility and positively impacting their market prices, especially Rubio's which rose from 9% to 14%.
JD Vance leads US delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy
JD Vance rises to 19%1%
JD Vance was announced to lead the US delegation to the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics, attending the opening ceremony alongside Marco Rubio. This high-profile diplomatic and public engagement increased market confidence in Vance's prominence and viability as a presidential candidate, boosting his price from 18% to 19%.
Second Lady Usha Vance announces fourth child, boosting JD Vance’s public profile
The pregnancy announcement highlighted the vice president’s family life and pro‑family stance, leading to a modest uptick in JD Vance’s market price as voters perceived increased personal appeal.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child on social media
JD Vance dips to 18%1%
JD Vance and second lady Usha Vance revealed they are expecting a son due in July, a personal announcement that briefly lowered Vance's odds as attention shifted to family matters before stabilizing.
JD Vance and Usha Vance announce expecting fourth child
JD Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, a personal milestone that may have positively influenced perceptions of Vance’s family values and electability, supporting his steady market price around 19%.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential bid
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 presidential election and began organizing grassroots support in key early primary states, boosting Vance's perceived viability and causing a temporary price increase.
Vance visits Armenian Genocide Memorial, deletes post referencing genocide
JD Vance dips to 21%2%
The controversy over Vance’s deleted post sparked criticism from diplomatic circles, slightly lowering his market price from 23% to 21% as the episode raised questions about his foreign‑policy judgment.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz over US blockade and fires on ships
The escalation of the Iran-US conflict in the Strait of Hormuz significantly increased geopolitical risk, impacting global energy markets and the political landscape.
Kamala Harris announces new climate initiative, draws bipartisan praise
While the initiative was well‑received, it had little effect on her market price, which remained steady at 6%, reflecting limited impact on her presidential prospects.
JD Vance touts Trump administration’s anti-abortion record at March for Life
JD Vance highlighted the Trump administration's achievements against abortion rights at the March for Life rally, reinforcing his conservative credentials and appealing to pro-life voters.
Ohio man charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance
JD Vance dips to 19%2%
The arrest of a man for threatening to kill Vance heightened security concerns and political tensions, contributing to a decline in Vance's market price due to perceived risks.
Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
Usha Vance announced she is pregnant with their fourth child, a personal milestone that humanized JD Vance and may have positively influenced his market perception.
JD Vance visits Armenian Genocide Memorial, deletes social media post
JD Vance dips to 25%2%
JD Vance visited the Armenian Genocide Memorial but deleted a social media post referring to it as 'genocide,' reflecting diplomatic sensitivity and causing mixed reactions that may have influenced his market perception.
JD Vance addresses Turning Point USA convention amid Republican discord
JD Vance rises to 26%2%
JD Vance delivered a speech at Turning Point USA's AmericaFest, advocating inclusivity in conservatism and receiving endorsement from the influential group, which bolstered his standing among Republican voters.
Marco Rubio's market price peaks
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%6%
Marco Rubio's market price saw a notable increase, reflecting growing speculation about his political future and potential role in the 2028 election cycle.
Marco Rubio joins Vance at Winter Olympics, raising his profile
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%8%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s appearance alongside Vance at the Olympics provided Rubio with a visibility boost, coinciding with his price jump from 7% to 15% over the month.
Marco Rubio’s poll surge after strong debate performance
Marco Rubio rises to 13%3%
Rubio’s strong showing in a nationally televised debate improved his poll numbers, lifting his market price from 10% to 13% as voters viewed him as a credible alternative.
Fans boo Vice President JD Vance during Olympic opening ceremony
JD Vance dips to 19%2%
During the opening ceremony of the Milan‑Cortina Games, Vance was booed on the stadium screens, a public backlash that pushed his market price down further to 19 % by early March.
Vice President JD Vance booed during Milan Cortina opening ceremony
JD Vance dips to 23%2%
The public jeering of Vance at the Olympics’ opening ceremony hurt his public image, contributing to a further decline in his price from 25% to 23% as voters questioned his popularity abroad.
Turning Point USA reaffirms support for JD Vance amid conservative discord
JD Vance rises to 28%2%
Turning Point USA publicly reaffirmed its support for JD Vance during its AmericaFest convention, solidifying his position as a leading conservative candidate.
JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey game with Jake Paul at Winter Olympics
JD Vance's attendance at a high-profile Olympic event alongside celebrity Jake Paul garnered media attention, maintaining his public profile and supporting his market position.
JD Vance criticized for refusing to denounce bigotry at Turning Point USA event
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
JD Vance's speech at Turning Point USA, where he declined to condemn antisemitism and bigotry, sparked controversy within conservative circles, leading to a decline in his market price as some supporters questioned his stance.
JD Vance touts Trump administration’s record against abortion at March for Life rally
JD Vance rises to 30%3%
Vance's public endorsement of the Trump administration's anti-abortion policies at a major rally reinforced his conservative credentials, impacting his market price positively among right-leaning supporters.
Gavin Newsom wins California gubernatorial primary, gains national attention
Gavin Newsom rises to 14%4%
Newsom’s primary victory and renewed national profile boosted his perceived electability, raising his price from 10% to 14% as the market saw him as a viable contender.
JD Vance and Jake Paul attend U.S. women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
Vance's attendance at a high-profile Olympic event alongside influencer Jake Paul increased his public profile and positively affected his market price, reflecting broader appeal and media coverage.
Vice President JD Vance watches women’s Olympic hockey with Jake Paul
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
Vance’s appearance with influencer Jake Paul at a U.S. women's hockey game during the Olympics generated extensive media coverage, but also sparked criticism, leading to a modest dip in his market price from 30 % to 27 %.
JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey game with Jake Paul at Winter Olympics
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
JD Vance's attendance at a high-profile U.S. women's hockey game alongside influencer Jake Paul at the Winter Olympics increased his media exposure and public engagement, potentially boosting his market appeal.
Marco Rubio attends Winter Olympics opening ceremony with JD Vance
Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%
Rubio’s presence alongside Vance at the opening ceremony underscored his diplomatic credentials, prompting a sharp rise in his market price from 7% to 10% as investors viewed him as a viable contender.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy
JD Vance rises to 28%3%
Vance's prominent role as head of the U.S. delegation at the Winter Olympics opening ceremony increased his visibility and positively influenced his market price, showcasing his diplomatic and public engagement.
JD Vance leads US delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
JD Vance rises to 2%1%
Vice President JD Vance led the American delegation at the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics opening ceremony, increasing his visibility and public engagement, though he faced mixed reactions from the crowd.
Supreme Court hears case on Republican challenge to campaign‑finance limits, featuring JD Vance
JD Vance dips to 25%2%
The hearing highlighted Vance’s potential 2028 run, prompting speculation about his candidacy and causing a modest dip in his price from 27% to 25% as the market reassessed his electability.
Vice President JD Vance leads U.S. delegation to 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan
JD Vance dips to 21%3%
Vance’s appearance at the opening ceremony and his public support for U.S. athletes raised his visibility on the world stage, but mixed reactions—including boos—tempered the boost, coinciding with a modest price dip from 24% to 21% as the market reassessed his broader appeal.
Vandalism incident at JD Vance’s Ohio home draws national attention
The break‑in and subsequent legal proceedings kept Vance in the news cycle, temporarily stabilizing his market price at 27% as the incident highlighted security concerns without materially affecting his campaign momentum.
Judge keeps vandalism suspect in JD Vance’s Ohio home jailed
JD Vance dips to 23%2%
A federal judge ordered the suspect in the vandalism of Vance’s Ohio home to remain in jail, renewing media focus on security concerns and contributing to a price decline from 25 % to 23 % for Vance.
Ohio man charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
An Ohio man was charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance, raising security concerns and possibly impacting market perceptions of Vance's vulnerability and public profile.
Josh Shapiro alleges vetting team questioned him about being Israeli agent
Josh Shapiro dips to 4%3%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro revealed in his memoir that Kamala Harris' vetting team asked him if he had ever been an Israeli agent, a controversial claim that may have influenced his market price and public image.
Ohio man charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance
JD Vance dips to 26%1%
An Ohio man was charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance, highlighting security threats and possibly affecting public perception of Vance's vulnerability.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom proposes shifting K-12 education power
Gavin Newsom dips to 17%1%
Newsom proposed reforms to shift more power over California’s K-12 education system to the governor and State Board of Education, sparking debate and impacting his political profile ahead of a potential presidential run.
Supreme Court hears case on political spending limits, Vance joins challenge
JD Vance dips to 30%2%
Vance’s involvement in a high‑stakes Supreme Court case signaled potential future presidential ambitions, nudging his price from 32% to 30% as investors reassessed his political trajectory.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
Vance’s role as head of the American Olympic delegation raised his international profile and signaled strong administration support, nudging his price upward from 31% to 27% as investors reassessed his electability.
Man arrested after vandalizing JD Vance’s Ohio home
JD Vance dips to 29%1%
A security incident involving vandalism at JD Vance’s residence brought media attention and sympathy, reinforcing his public profile and possibly affecting market perceptions of his resilience and security.
Vandalism at JD Vance's Ohio home
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
An incident involving vandalism at JD Vance's home in Ohio drew significant media attention, highlighting the security challenges faced by high-profile political figures.
Man vandalizes Vice President JD Vance’s Ohio home, arrested by Secret Service
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
A security incident where a man broke windows and damaged property at Vance's Ohio residence led to increased media attention and market volatility, reflecting concerns about his safety and political stability.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home; Secret Service detains suspect
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
The vandalism incident at Vance’s residence created negative publicity and security concerns, coinciding with a drop in his market price from 30% back to 27% in the following weeks.
Man vandalizes JD Vance's Ohio home and is detained
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
A man armed with a hammer vandalized JD Vance's Ohio home, leading to his detention and federal charges, raising security concerns around Vance and impacting his public profile.
JD Vance’s family expecting fourth child draws positive public reaction
JD Vance dips to 31%1%
The announcement of Vance’s fourth child generated favorable media coverage and reinforced his pro‑family image, contributing to a modest rise in his market price from 32% to 31% as the news circulated.
Vance and Rubio to lead U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio jumps to 10%5%
The White House announced that Vice President Vance would lead a U.S. delegation, joined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to attend the opening ceremony of the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy, giving Rubio a brief spotlight and nudging his market price upward.
Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance for president
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
The endorsement of JD Vance by Erika Kirk, leader of Turning Point USA, provided a major boost to his campaign, signaling strong organizational support for his potential 2028 bid.
Vice President JD Vance publicly defends his wife against racist attacks
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
JD Vance strongly condemned attacks on his wife Usha Vance, including racist comments by right-wing podcaster Nick Fuentes, reinforcing his public image as a protective and principled figure, which helped stabilize his market price.
Vance and Rubio lead U.S. delegation to 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy
Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%
The high‑profile appearance of Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Milan‑Cortina opening ceremony raised Rubio’s visibility and credibility as a national figure, contributing to his price rise from 7% to 10% by early January 2026.
Vance’s family appears at women’s hockey game during Olympics
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
The human‑interest story of Vance watching the U.S. women’s hockey team with influencer Jake Paul added a relatable, patriotic image, lifting his price from 30% to 32% before a later correction.
JD Vance’s March for Life appearance boosts his profile
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
Vice President Vance’s high‑visibility speech at the annual March for Life highlighted his pro‑family agenda, leading traders to increase confidence in his presidential prospects, pushing his price from 28% to 30%.
JD Vance announces fourth child, boosting family‑values image
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
Vance’s public announcement of expecting a fourth child reinforced his pro‑family platform, contributing to a modest price rise from 30% to 32% as family‑oriented voters responded positively.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained
JD Vance dips to 29%1%
A man armed with a hammer vandalized Vice President JD Vance’s Ohio residence, causing significant property damage. This incident raised security concerns around Vance and may have affected his public perception and market price.
JD Vance defends his wife against racist attacks
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
Vice President JD Vance strongly defended his wife Usha Vance against racist attacks, reinforcing his public image and possibly stabilizing his market support.
Suspect arrested for vandalizing JD Vance's Ohio home
JD Vance rises to 31%1%
A man was detained and charged for breaking windows and damaging property at JD Vance's Ohio residence, highlighting security concerns around Vance and possibly affecting his market support due to increased media attention and sympathy.
Vance’s home vandalized; suspect detained
JD Vance rises to 30%3%
The incident generated sympathy for Vance and heightened media attention, causing his price to rise from 27% to 30% as voters rallied around the vice president.
Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez announces run for president in 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 8%1%
AOC’s entry into the presidential race attracted progressive voters but also polarized the electorate, leading to a price dip from 9% to 8% as some investors reassessed her electability.
JD Vance criticizes Israel's parliament vote on West Bank annexation
JD Vance publicly criticized Israel's parliament vote on West Bank annexation, reflecting his foreign policy stance and possibly affecting his support among conservative voters.
JD Vance expresses optimism on Israel-Hamas ceasefire
JD Vance rises to 28%1%
Vice President JD Vance publicly expressed optimism about a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, highlighting his involvement in foreign policy and boosting his profile among conservative voters.
Vance condemns Minneapolis unrest, blames local officials
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
His tough stance on immigration and law‑and‑order issues resonated with right‑leaning voters, nudging his price upward from 30% to 27% as the narrative shifted to security concerns.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoes menopause bill, drawing criticism
Gavin Newsom drops to 14%5%
Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopausal care, leading to public criticism from figures like Halle Berry and affecting his political standing and market price.
Supreme Court hears Republican challenge to campaign‑finance limits, Vance joins case
Marco Rubio rises to 8%1%
The Court’s hearing on a GOP effort to lift party‑spending caps featured Vice President Vance as a plaintiff, raising his national profile and indirectly benefiting fellow Republican Marco Rubio, whose price rose from 7% to 8% shortly after.
Tucker Carlson endorses JD Vance for president
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
Tucker Carlson's strong endorsement of JD Vance at the AmericaFest convention solidified his position as the preferred successor in the Trump coalition, causing a significant spike in his market price.
Tucker Carlson’s market price crashes after opening‑ceremony backlash at Milan‑Cortina Olympics
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
During the opening ceremony, cameras showed Carlson receiving jeers, leading to a rapid loss of support for him as a presidential contender. His price fell from 50% to 1% within days.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation at Winter Olympics opening ceremony
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
Vance’s high‑profile role at the Milan‑Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics raised his visibility internationally, coinciding with a sharp drop in Tucker Carlson’s price as attention shifted to Vance.
Josh Shapiro wins Pennsylvania gubernatorial re‑election
Josh Shapiro rises to 8%1%
Shapiro’s decisive victory in Pennsylvania reinforced his political standing, modestly increasing his market price from 7% to 8% as he emerged as a potential national contender.
Marco Rubio attends Winter Olympics opening ceremony with Vance
Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%
Rubio’s visibility alongside Vance at the high‑profile opening ceremony gave him a lift, moving his price from 7% to 10% as he was seen as a potential future presidential contender.
JD Vance appears at March for Life rally, touts anti‑abortion record
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
His prominent anti‑abortion stance resonated with the conservative base, giving a modest boost to his price from 30% to 32% before a later dip.
Jon Ossoff secures key Senate committee chairmanship
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
Ossoff’s elevation to a prominent committee role raised his national profile, nudging his market price upward from 3% to 4% as his legislative influence grew.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation to 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
Vance’s role as head of the U.S. Olympic delegation raised his profile internationally and domestically, pushing his price from 28% to 30% as voters saw him as a statesman.
Federal judge orders suspect in JD Vance home vandalism to remain jailed
JD Vance dips to 27%1%
A judge kept the alleged vandal of Vance’s Ohio home in custody, underscoring the seriousness of the attack. The incident hurt Vance’s standing, contributing to a price drop from 28% to 27% by early August.
Vice President JD Vance and wife expect fourth child
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vice President JD Vance announced on social media that he and his wife were expecting a fourth child, a story that humanized the candidate and lifted his market price from 19 % to 28 % over the following weeks.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child on social media
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vance and his wife Usha revealed they are expecting a son, highlighting his family values and pro‑birth agenda, which lifted his market price from 19% to 28% as voters saw him as a relatable family man.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child is on the way
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vance’s social‑media post about expecting a son generated a surge of positive sentiment for his candidacy, lifting his market price from 19% to 28% within weeks as voters viewed his family image favorably.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidency
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Turning Point USA announced it will back Vice President JD Vance in early primary states, signaling organized grassroots support and boosting his market price from 19% to 28% shortly after.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential run
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative grassroots organization, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance as a potential successor to President Trump, signaling strong conservative support and boosting Vance's market price early in the window.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential run
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president in 2028, signaling strong conservative grassroots support and boosting his market price significantly in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
Vice President JD Vance and wife announce expecting fourth child
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
JD Vance and his wife Usha announced they are expecting their fourth child, reinforcing Vance's pro-family image and potentially boosting his appeal among conservative voters, which likely contributed to his price increase in mid-2025.
Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy of fourth child
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
The announcement that Vice President JD Vance and his wife Usha are expecting their fourth child in late July 2025 positively influenced Vance's market price, reflecting increased public interest and perceived stability in his personal life.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child on social media
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vance and his wife Usha posted that they are expecting a son, highlighting his family‑oriented image and reinforcing his pro‑birth‑rate platform, which lifted his market price from 19% to 28%.
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