Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis leads trader consensus at 76% implied probability for the Dublin Central Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by his strong local profile from the 2024 local elections, positive doorstep feedback on housing and community safety, and alignment with bookmaker odds favoring him as a frontrunner to capture the Fine Gael vacancy left by Paschal Donohoe. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 16%, leveraging party leader Mary Lou McDonald's constituency base amid left-leaning voter sentiment, though recent claims downplaying immigration concerns drew criticism without shifting odds. Independent Gerry Hutch's 4% reflects heavy betting volume from his 2024 near-miss and youth support focus, but limited broader appeal in the 14-candidate field where transfers under PR-STV will prove decisive. Minor controversies, like Ennis's past business link and a Fine Gael ethics complaint, have not altered the race with one week remaining.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于丹尼尔·恩尼斯 76%
贾尼斯·博伊兰 17.3%
杰里·哈奇 3.6%
Ray McAdam 1.7%
$1,068,047 交易量
$1,068,047 交易量
丹尼尔·恩尼斯
76%
贾尼斯·博伊兰
17%
杰里·哈奇
4%
Ray McAdam
2%
珍妮特·霍纳
1%
吉莉安·谢拉特
1%
马拉基·斯廷森
1%
伊恩·诺埃尔·史密斯
<1%
玛丽·菲茨帕特里克
<1%
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
<1%
Séamas McGrattan
<1%
约翰·斯蒂芬斯
<1%
丹尼尔·恩尼斯 76%
贾尼斯·博伊兰 17.3%
杰里·哈奇 3.6%
Ray McAdam 1.7%
$1,068,047 交易量
$1,068,047 交易量
丹尼尔·恩尼斯
76%
贾尼斯·博伊兰
17%
杰里·哈奇
4%
Ray McAdam
2%
珍妮特·霍纳
1%
吉莉安·谢拉特
1%
马拉基·斯廷森
1%
伊恩·诺埃尔·史密斯
<1%
玛丽·菲茨帕特里克
<1%
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
<1%
Séamas McGrattan
<1%
约翰·斯蒂芬斯
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
市场开放时间： Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis leads trader consensus at 76% implied probability for the Dublin Central Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by his strong local profile from the 2024 local elections, positive doorstep feedback on housing and community safety, and alignment with bookmaker odds favoring him as a frontrunner to capture the Fine Gael vacancy left by Paschal Donohoe. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 16%, leveraging party leader Mary Lou McDonald's constituency base amid left-leaning voter sentiment, though recent claims downplaying immigration concerns drew criticism without shifting odds. Independent Gerry Hutch's 4% reflects heavy betting volume from his 2024 near-miss and youth support focus, but limited broader appeal in the 14-candidate field where transfers under PR-STV will prove decisive. Minor controversies, like Ennis's past business link and a Fine Gael ethics complaint, have not altered the race with one week remaining.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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