Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid August 25, 2026, show D4 exceptional drought expanding across portions of the western U.S., northern Great Plains, and southern Plains amid persistent heat, below-normal precipitation, and soil moisture deficits, with degradation noted in states including Idaho, Nebraska, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, California, and parts of the Texas-Oklahoma region. Strengthening El Niño conditions and National Weather Service outlooks favoring above-normal September temperatures across much of the West and South support further intensification or limited relief depending on localized monsoon or convective activity. These factors create uncertainty around whether D4 will affect roughly 5–9 states or reach 10 or more by the early-September map period, as model consensus and short-term rainfall patterns remain variable.